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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:49 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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It all depends on where Nate makes the bend.

Image

Nate also looks to miss the Yuc now and remain over water, will that affect its intensification prospects?

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:36 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I think the forecast movement north will keep it from intensifying too rapidly. Basically it's simply moving too fast to really get organized. If my calculations are right it'll be moving north close to 25mph.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:10 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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00z run has shifted Nate to the east a little more with the area from Mobile AL to Pensacola FL in the bullseye. This run also shows Nate stronger with mid Cat 1 force winds and possibly stronger.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:22 pm 
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
We had some rain while in Florida, but thankfully it held off each day until after we were finished with mermaid camp and kayaking. It's official...I am a real life mermaid and have the certificate to prove it! What an epic vacation! (Photos eventually...I took over 500 and need the time to sort and edit. We saw nine manatees while kayaking on Monday!!)

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:26 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I have never seen more crystal clear water than those springs in FL. Manatee are cute.

Its hard to believe its been 12 years since Katrina. They had a lot to learn unfortunately from that experience, like allowing pets in shelters now.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:32 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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SurfnSnowboard wrote:
00z run has shifted Nate to the east a little more with the area from Mobile AL to Pensacola FL in the bullseye. This run also shows Nate stronger with mid Cat 1 force winds and possibly stronger.


I notice the center of Nate has ended up not crossing land after all, so its going to be over open water longer.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:24 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It's now Hurricane Nate.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:13 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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From a really disorganized mass to something cohesive in just a few hours.

Image

Image


8 PM PT discussion

Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since
the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then
additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be
necessary in subsequent advisories.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:30 am 
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Climax
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It is in rather a bit of a hurry at 21 mph. No time to stop and refresh.
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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:08 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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You can see a cold front or something to the NW of Nate ready to sweep it away. Its booking at 26 mph.

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:18 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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At 90mph it's already at the high end of Cat 1 and it seems reasonable that it will make landfall as a Cat 2. I thought that the models were underestimating how quickly it would intensify despite the fast forward motion.

Think about the difference in winds between the left side and right side with 25mph forward motion!


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:13 pm 
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Nate made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River as a Cat 1 storm.

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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:15 pm 
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Some of the models have Ophelia strengthening to hurricane force and moving towards the Azores. Has that ever happened before?

Needless to say I'm skeptical.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:25 am 
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Spain and eventually UK in the crosshairs of Ophelia.


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 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:27 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Looking more like now hurricane ophelia, will miss Iberia and Ireland.


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