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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:20 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
FWIW it began very lightly raining in the SF area several hours ago. No wind.

I'm going to be a contrarian and put my faith for a goodly amount of snowfall in that cold pool of air with the system and Mammoth's renowned ability to pump out snow from that.

Image


It sure looks pretty.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:27 am 
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Dave's Run
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Snowing decently with large flakes in the Knolls right now, was just tiny flakes about and hour ago. I hope it keeps up.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:31 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Looks like this is a bust. Damn.

Who jinxed it?

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:09 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Well that was unexciting. 2-4" on MM and blue sky below the cloud deck right now. Looks like Patrol is getting ready to open the top. Still pretty breezy though. Glad for the athletes that the GP event will be able to take place this evening under the lights.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:26 pm 
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Stump Alley
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3-5+ Great day got a ton of laps off 3. 5 and under 23 and some fun stuff off of 25. Love it when it's white and soft. I thought it was exciting and so did Flaskman. :clap:


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:49 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Its a rollercoaster for Sunday precip. forecasts. Last night mine had decreased dramatically from 2/3" to 1/3", and now its back up to .72".

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:11 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Total precipitation ended up being about 0.55" for Mammoth. Certainly a lot less than the qpf indicated a few days ago.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:02 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Reno sounded hopeful for next week's storm?

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

By Wednesday and Wednesday night, there
is medium-high confidence for a significant system to round the base
of a large-scale northeast Pacific trough and push a strong cold
front through the region. The system currently looks better
organized than the system that moved through today as next week`s
system is simulated to have the axis of the upper low more
coincident to the surface front. Also, the last couple runs of the
GFS and EC show a better moisture feed with increasing precipitation
amounts simulated. All this points to higher precipitation amounts
as compared to the current system, especially in the Sierra.


Right now, either solution would keep precipitation mainly in the
form of snow for the Sierra (a chance for a brief rain-snow mix at
Lake Tahoe level Wednesday). The system is progressive and this will
be a limiting factor for precipitation totals. Still, the Sierra
could see a moderate snowfall.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:35 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
GFS has some 20" for Thursday for MM area.. Time stamp not to far into the future.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:38 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Quote:
Looks like this is a bust. Damn.Who jinxed it?

No jinx but if you want one you're the kook who quoted...Howard sez... 18+ inches

Storm was NOT a bust it actually snowed... "4-6in at sesame" storm behaved per forecast, 2NA can verify that too. Patrol's instruments I dont think were working right. I think final total is 4" of snow at sesame with around 6-7" top mtn. Storm liquid around .40. Summit winds were clocked between 100-110 mph for a few hours late Thu nite

No need to talk about Sun Mon storm- it' just an ankle slapper. Wed Thur is worth watching but the problem I have with this one is yet another split system on a similar trajectory but appears deeper. Best to not get excited until 2 days out cuz this current wet pattern is temperamental. Latest euro runs have around .8-.9 of liquid for wed thu storm. Also latest 00Z EC control run has ridging in command thru first week of February after the Wed Thu storm. Again, pray to ULLR.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:55 am 
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Dave's Run
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Quoting vs prognostication are two different things. I simply quoted Howard. No jinx effect.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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bombtripper wrote:
Quote:
Looks like this is a bust. Damn.Who jinxed it?

No jinx but if you want one you're the kook who quoted...Howard sez... 18+ inches

Storm was NOT a bust it actually snowed... "4-6in at sesame" storm behaved per forecast, 2NA can verify that too. Patrol's instruments I dont think were working right. I think final total is 4" of snow at sesame with around 6-7" top mtn. Storm liquid around .40. Summit winds were clocked between 100-110 mph for a few hours late Thu nite

No need to talk about Sun Mon storm- it' just an ankle slapper. Wed Thur is worth watching but the problem I have with this one is yet another split system on a similar trajectory but appears deeper. Best to not get excited until 2 days out cuz this current wet pattern is temperamental. Latest euro runs have around .8-.9 of liquid for wed thu storm. Also latest 00Z EC control run has ridging in command thru first week of February after the Wed Thu storm. Again, pray to ULLR.


What makes you think that both patrol gauges over reported precipitation by almost the same amount? Your estimate of 0.40" is quite a bit lower than the official patrol record of 0.63" in the snowfall archive.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Dave's Run
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snowhottie wrote:
Its a rollercoaster for Sunday precip. forecasts. Last night mine had decreased dramatically from 2/3" to 1/3", and now its back up to .72".


Aaaand now back down to .27".

Wed. is at .68".

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:50 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Quote:
What makes you think that both patrol gauges over reported precipitation by almost the same amount? Your estimate of 0.40" is quite a bit lower than the official patrol record of 0.63" in the snowfall archive.

Lets re clarify... my suspicion was that some of the instruments/gauges were not working right. Using before and after base readings is how 4" was concluded. The storm actually arrived a few hours late; according to patrol precip didn't start until 3am Fri morning, and at 3am the temp at sesame was 28. Thru the storm's passage the temp continued to drop to 21 at 3pm Fri 19th, which by then the bulk of the precip has ended. Given those temps during the precip window there is no way wet snow or rain could have fallen.

So patrol needs to tell me how .63 of SWE produced snowfall of 4". It would be a snow ratio of 6:1. Given the aforementioned temps at main that data is questionable. Also look at the data on the journal page... yes I base my conclusion using the same source but look at whoever entered the data entered the snowfall on the wrong dates. It should be 3" on the 19th and 1" on the 20th. And the person entered 1" of snow with SWE of .25 that fell on the 19th and rain of .02 was also recognized base started at 37?....hmmm. Let's remember the 19th started at 12am with the temp at 29 and no precip was registered yet. There's something wrong here. I read thoroughly the data page for the storm's beginning and ending but have since lost it.

Bottom line, assuming snow and SWE gauges were not working and there's apparent human errors in data entry then this is a moot issue since neither of us can verify the truth about true liquid observed value. We then trust what marketing says and a little bit of logic... 4" at 10:1. Patrol has a history of non properly functioning gauges.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:39 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Thanks for clarifying. Both gauges - Sesame Street and McCoy - registered ~0.55. In between your estimate and patrol's record. No idea how much was snow and at what ratio.


Last edited by SurfnSnowboard on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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