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 Post subject: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2015 5:19 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Moving this here;
2NAKLLR wrote:
Hel-looo Andres.
1st EPAC tropical storm and soon to be hurricane.


Not gonna happen with this one, but really hoping we get a storm far enough North that we get some surf on the LB Peninsula again this year.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2015 10:06 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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If its a building El Nino, the winds from the west should be more likely to push tropical storms towards the coastline. Bring back Linda.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2015 8:21 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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A bit early this year? Like earlier than last year? Wonder if we will make it through the alphabet. Came close last year. And if El Niño stays, I suspect we will get a crashed hurricane or TS - but hopefully not like Linda.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:57 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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2NAKLLR wrote:
Blanca!

Image


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:41 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Spirit Tree wrote:
I didn't expect this... Cat 4
Image

Blanca remains on track but Andres hangs a R.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:53 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I just checked the forecast tracks for Andres and Blanca: the models have no idea which direction Andres is going but then it doesn't look like it's going anywhere at all. Blanca is now shown by virtually every model heading directly for Cabo.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:08 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Waves coming along with a lot of other components....
46 feet is up there.
http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/npac.shtml
Image

This one is not a hot link as above. Curious to see how this forecast holds out...
Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:24 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I've never seen such incredible consistency between the various computer models and run to run. I think it's about 11 out of 12 have Blanca hitting Cabo.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2015 1:06 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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No bueno.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:26 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Andres has completely fallen apart and the residual moisture is streaming into Az bringing some showers. Blanca has weakened and most models have shifted the track west just enough to miss Cabo. That could also mean more chance of monsoonal moisture reaching SoCal if Blanca skirts Baja heading north.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:54 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Blanca is back up to a Cat 4! No bueno is right 2NA..
"Hurricane Blanca has accomplished the rare feat of reaching Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale for a second time after weakening to Category 1 level in between. Blanca continued plowing northwestward parallel to the Mexican coastline on Saturday morning after a dramatic burst of intensification overnight pushed its sustained winds to 130 mph, as of the 9:00 am MDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Earlier in the week, Blanca rapidly strengthened from a tropical storm on Tuesday morning to Category 4 strength on Wednesday, then suddenly weakened to a 110-mph storm in only 12 hours and fell to a Category 1 intensity on Friday afternoon (90 mph) before getting its second wind on Friday night. With peak winds of 140 mph on June 3, Blanca was the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Blanca’s slow forward motion enabled its rapid midweek intensification, as the hurricane parked over a hot spot of deep, warm water, but the slow pace also enabled Blanca to churn up enough cold water to help cause its rapid weakening."

Image

The eye (it keeps following me)
" A weakening trend should begin tonight or early Sunday when
the hurricane encounters cool waters around 20 degrees north.
The weakening should occur even faster as the cyclone approaches
the West Coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. The effect
of the high terrain and increasing shear will cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 3 days."

Image

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:48 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Beautiful looking storm and impressive to have strengthened back to Cat 4. Pretty much a direct hit on Isla Socorro which also took a direct hit from Linda according to Wikipedia.

Models are still in surpringly good agreement about the track which has fortunately shifted about 100 miles west of Cabo. Looks like it is headed across the peninsula towards Bahia de Los Angeles then north towards AZ.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 2:27 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
"LIVE" loop:
Image

Linda
Image


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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:55 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
There was a tornado in Hawthorne, NV yesterday (6/5).

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... &version=0

http://www.mynews4.com/news/local/story ... 2gd4w.cspx

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 Post subject: Re: 2015 EPAC Hurricane Season
PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2015 2:05 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Blanca is now just a ts and is expected to weaken further over the next 24 hours. Fortunate for Cabo.


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