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 Post subject: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:28 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
(Clever title pending)

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.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE WARMUP FRI/SAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A
RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO CALIFORNIA.
12 MODELS HUNG ONTO THEIR RESPECTIVE COLDER/WETTER (ECMWF)
WARMER/DRIER (GFS) SOLUTIONS, THOUGH OVERALL THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A
BIT MORE CONSISTENT AND ACTUALLY HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER OVER
THE LAST 3 OR 4 RUNS. IN ADDITION, THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED A LARGER
VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN THE EC. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW WITH
THE DETAILS, BUT VERY CONFIDENT THAT WE`LL AT LEAST SEE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING FOR SUNDAY, AT LEAST 10 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS AS WE TURN
ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE TROF. BUT HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST CERTAINLY IS WEIGHTED THAT WAY WITH
MORE COOLING SUNDAY THAN THE GFS AND AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
WITH DRIER/WARMER WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEK. HERE AGAIN THOUGH
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN FAVORING A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN, IN THIS CASE A STRONGER RIDGE, FOR
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROF APPROACHING
NRN CALIFORNIA. WILL HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST ONCE SUNDAY`S FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

_________________
Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


Last edited by cheapski on Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal October
PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:24 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Posts: 1364
Location: Orange County, CA
Socal HOTtober

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I will show you the dark side...


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal October
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:27 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
^^^Bite your tongue, enough of the heat until 2016..
In that case Cooltober..
Straight line of showers from S.B/Channel Isles up to Lake Tahoe...

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:28 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:14 pm
Posts: 23178
Location: 240 Hours Out
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING FALL INLINE WITH A DEVELOPING INSIDE
SLIDER SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT EXIST
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOS ANGELES BASIN.
AS THE SYSTEM DIGS...SOME MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL
ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN WITH MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS THE TROUGHS CENTER MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD WILL ENTRAIN MORE
MOISTURE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF THE AREA. GFS
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOS ANGELES BASIN
POSSIBLY KEEPING THE BASIN IN SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GFS BUFR TIME HEIGHT SECTION INDICATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO 10000 FEET MSL MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CLOUD COVER AND POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED AND MENTION OF RAIN/SHOWERS WERE ADDED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ABOUT A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WITH SOME
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES SEEING LOCALLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA.

_________________
Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:33 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Nice. Way to keep the confidence cheap. Now everyone, think "Minuet in G".


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:51 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Posts: 23178
Location: 240 Hours Out
Well in good rain years we always get a nice Halloween storm, so fingers crossed for that.

San Diego

WHILE WE ENJOY A PRETTY NICE SATURDAY...A COMPACT
AND ROBUST CUT OFF LOW
WILL DROP STRAIGHT DOWN THE WEST COAST AND
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND TO MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
MONDAY AND WEAKENS AS IT DOES SO SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER CONSENSUS ON TIMING WHICH RAISES
CONFIDENCE...BUT NOT SUCH GREAT AGREEMENT ON LOCATION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH
OR SO...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW ON OUR HIGHEST PEAKS.

_________________
Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 1:42 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Posts: 9400
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
La dee dah dee dah dee dah dee dum dah dee dum dah dee dum.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:13 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Posts: 9400
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
BTW Youre a sop.

SD 1418
Quote:
MID NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY FEATURE BRISK ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE
TEMPERATURES...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THAT PESKY EAST PAC RIDGE WILL
BUILD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PRONOUNCED WARMING
PERIOD FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

Booo.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 7:45 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
It better not be Floptober, is all I can say.

That Low north of Hawaii looks like it will be drawing up that subtropical moisture. I wonder if it will do anything to affect us down the road. I'm wondering if that subtropical stream is setting up to be a persistent feature this Winter that Lows can dip into to energize themselves.

2NAKLLR wrote:
Nice. Way to keep the confidence cheap. Now everyone, think "Minuet in G".

Didn't you see the last scene in The Music Man?

_________________
Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:48 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Not that bad.

Image

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Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:18 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WAS PAID TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INSIDE SLIDER TYPE TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTH AND DROP INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. POPS WERE NUDGED
HIGHER...BUT MAIN EDITS WERE TO DROP SNOW LEVELS AND ADD A MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF
HAS BEEN BUMPED HIGHER FOR THE SYSTEM.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN
A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR THE COAST...VALLEYS...AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY WITH UP TO ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE SAN
GABRIELS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AS SOON AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 700
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR -4 DEGREE CELSIUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DROPPING THE SNOW LEVEL TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500
FEET.
SNOW SHOWERS...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NOT IMPACT TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 5 OR HIGHWAY 14.

_________________
Come for the weather, stay for the drama, eat the bacon, triple the salmon


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:15 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Cooler weather! YES!


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 11:55 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:24 pm
Posts: 12635
San Bernardinos snowcapped the first week of October? That would be unusual!


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:04 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Posts: 9400
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
cheapski wrote:
(Clever title pending)

Image

You can see "it" forming up in BC. It reminds me of last year. Those weird backdoor dips in the jet outta ID over the EPAC H, and end up just over water off SoCal/Baja.

Breathe. Its barely October. USAD is kickin in again.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal SOPtober
PostPosted: Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:12 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:30 pm
Posts: 510
[quote="cheapski"]It better not be Floptober, is all I can say.

That Low north of Hawaii looks like it will be drawing up that subtropical moisture. I wonder if it will do anything to affect us down the road. I'm wondering if that subtropical stream is setting up to be a persistent feature this Winter that Lows can dip into to energize themselves.


It sure would be a much nicer persistent feature than a persistent blocking high. :rock:


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