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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 8:10 am 
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Dave's Run
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What's the forecast for snow in Utah for an El Nino? Does the jet stream go far enough north to hit up there?


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 3:02 pm 
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Dave's Run
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snowtrekker wrote:
SurfnSnowboard wrote:
Has anyone watched the briefing on a mobile device? On my Android tablet it keeps taking me to Google Play store to install some poorly rated app.


You need Articulate to run it. I just downloaded the app and uninstalled when I was done. Worked fine for me.

So does WG think the early season will be bad because the storm track will be further north, or just not as much energy impacting the West Coast at all? That could make a difference for my Christmas plans.


I didn't say it will be bad. Just slower than what the hype suggests. Could be decent skiing by X-mas, and that is certainly the time things could open up. My two analogs, 72-73 and 97-98 both featured a big February, so I am basing a bigger mid-late winter on that. 72-73 was better early season and a lot of the snow in December was dry powder with high snow ratios as December that year was quite cold in addition to the high latitude type storms.

And as we all know, I will probably be mostly wrong, when are seasonal forecast ever spot on? :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 3:03 pm 
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Dave's Run
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CalvaryMike wrote:
What's the forecast for snow in Utah for an El Nino? Does the jet stream go far enough north to hit up there?


There is not a good correlation in Utah with El Nino. Southern Utah will probably be better.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:09 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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WeatherGuy wrote:
CalvaryMike wrote:
What's the forecast for snow in Utah for an El Nino? Does the jet stream go far enough north to hit up there?


There is not a good correlation in Utah with El Nino. Southern Utah will probably be better.



:rock: :rock: :rock:


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:23 pm 
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Climax
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Any thoughts about a good time to book my Big Sky trip?

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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:46 pm 
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Dave's Run
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skibum4ever wrote:
Any thoughts about a good time to book my Big Sky trip?


In about a year. Odds don't favor anything north of Colorado during strong El Nino years. 2016-17 will probably be a La Nina season, that is good for Montana.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:42 pm 
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skibum4ever wrote:
Any thoughts about a good time to book my Big Sky trip?

A good way to visualize El Nino/La Nina years on precipitation is to think of a giant seesaw that is oriented vertically instead of horizontally, with Central CA being the midpoint and neutral. So in El Nino years the seesaw tilts towards lower latitudes like SoCal, AZ, southern Utah and Colorado, Taos, etc. In La Nina years it tilts the other way to favor northern latitudes like Whistler, Montana, Idaho, the PNW.

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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:00 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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WeatherGuy wrote:
skibum4ever wrote:
Any thoughts about a good time to book my Big Sky trip?


In about a year. Odds don't favor anything north of Colorado during strong El Nino years. 2016-17 will probably be a La Nina season, that is good for Montana.

Considering how long it took to build into this EN, its hard to believe in one year it will be La Nina. It should at least be similar to last year in water temps but hopefully not precip.
Results may vary.


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 Post subject: Re: 2015-2016 Winter Outlook from Mammoth Weather Guy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 21, 2015 11:32 am 
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Dave's Run
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2NAKLLR wrote:
WeatherGuy wrote:
skibum4ever wrote:
Any thoughts about a good time to book my Big Sky trip?


In about a year. Odds don't favor anything north of Colorado during strong El Nino years. 2016-17 will probably be a La Nina season, that is good for Montana.

Considering how long it took to build into this EN, its hard to believe in one year it will be La Nina. It should at least be similar to last year in water temps but hopefully not precip.
Results may vary.


There is often a splash back effect with the very strong El Ninos. 97-98 went from strong El Nino to moderate La Nina and 72-73 was followed by a strong La Nina. Not saying it is guaranteed to happen. 82-83 went negative, but didn't quite last long enough to classified as a true Nina.


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