Forums
It is currently Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:38 am

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 654 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:42 pm 
Offline
Rodger's Ridge
User avatar

Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:24 pm
Posts: 12270
Maria is down to Cat 1 and expected to continue to weaken bringing big surf and some clouds to the east coast so far. Meanwhile Pilar never got going and is down to a TD.


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:32 pm 
Offline
Kiwi Flat
Kiwi Flat
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:36 pm
Posts: 9120
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
snowhottie wrote:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

Look at how even so far away from Puerto Rico, something triggers a big blow up on the W side of the island. And there's the "dreaded pinhole eye".


Edit: there's an ULL under and between Jamaica and Hispaniola, could that affect Maria's track.

Image

Two cat1hurricanes (Maria and Lee) and only 20 or so mb difference but look at the overall sizes.


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:24 pm 
Offline
Kiwi Flat
Kiwi Flat
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:36 pm
Posts: 9120
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
^Lees eye is huge. If it passed over you the eye would be longer than the storm walls.


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:15 am 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
snowhottie wrote:
I dont know if the GFS is 'cane happy, but it has 3 tropical storms hitting the US in the next 2 weeks.

Image

Image

Image


So in defense of the GFS, this was pretty close.

Image

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:22 am 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_00z_thck.shtml

The end looks pretty exciting for SoCal.

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:41 am 
Offline
Dave's Run
Dave's Run
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:55 pm
Posts: 1378
Now THAT would be interesting

_________________
"There is no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather."


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 9:25 am 
Offline
Kiwi Flat
Kiwi Flat
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:36 pm
Posts: 9120
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
16days
Thats a fantasy of a fantasy.


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 12:14 pm 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
The 12Z run is not so exciting. It still has a tropical storm but keeps it offshore.

Image

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:27 pm 
Offline
Rodger's Ridge
User avatar

Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:24 pm
Posts: 12270
Another hurricane for the Gulf?

Update from Ryan Maue:

Nate is quite intense in the 12z ECMWF update -- 962 mb prior to landfall. Reminiscent of Hurricane Hermine

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/915654212083703808


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:44 pm 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
We're moving around. Now it doesnt look good for Nawlins.

Image

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:33 pm 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
Nate seems very determined to visit NOLA.

Image

Oh what a surprise!

One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico.
The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high,
and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:36 pm 
Offline
Rodger's Ridge
User avatar

Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:24 pm
Posts: 12270
It's pretty common for tropical systems to rapidly Intensify this late in the season. I won't be surprised if the models don't handle Nate well. That said the afternoon HWRF has Nate as a Cat 1 hitting the New Orleans area late Saturday night.

Image


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:02 am 
Offline
Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 657
Good consensus for the track. Its shifted slightly east. Nate also looks like its speeding up over the Gulf.

Image

_________________
The poster still known as Cheapski
Come for the weather, stay for the bacon, dont get kicked off the forum


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:37 am 
Offline
Rodger's Ridge
User avatar

Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:24 pm
Posts: 12270
Very little change in the forecast for Nate with models consistent with a Cat 1 hurricane hitting tomorrow night. A slight shift east may keep New Orleans from a direct hit.


Top
   
 
 Post subject: Re: 2016-2017 Tropical Weather
PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:02 pm 
Offline
Kiwi Flat
Kiwi Flat
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:36 pm
Posts: 9120
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
FWIW I did always feel it was going to go more toward MS/AL. Then the forecast tracks went W. No facts I just thought more E than the models.

I would say GTFO for coastal LA/MS due to surge though. Shrimpers beware.


Top
   
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 654 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44  Next

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group