Here is what Howard sez -
(This from the free version of his Weather Letter going out Monday at 12:00 Noon)
Detailed weather analysis and long range forecast http://www.data.mammothweather.com/landing
Free emailed forecasts athttp://mammothweather.com/howards-forecast/alerts/
You heard it here first!
Active pattern returns to the Eastern Sierra with cold wave followed by Atmospheric River
A Sierra Breeze came up Sunday afternoon in Mammoth, an indication that (heights) “pressures aloft” were lowering. A beautiful northwest-southeast sierra wave cloud prevailed much of Sunday afternoon, indicating that the upper jet was to our north.
Technical discussion related to current events-
Many thousand miles away a flood of moisture is being drawn northward by a strong Kona low (a quasi-stationary upper low NW of Kawaii.
The pattern effecting Hawaii at the moment, can be attributed in part to the strong blocking Upper High over the Bering sea which is also related to the warmer than normal SSTs in the Bering Sea this Fall. The Teleconnection name of this Block over or near the Bering Sea is the “negative phase of the WPO”, AKA, the Western Pacific Oscillation. Although SSTA’s in the Bering Sea are cooling, the block continues to redevelop in the foreseeable future.
Over the next several days, the PWAT Plume “Precipitable Water plume” affecting Hawaii, will find its way to “couple” with the westerlies later this week, helping to create a moderate atmospheric river event “AR” for Central and Northern CA.
As a side note, this plume is rich with moisture with the ECMWF model showing isolated areas of 3 inches in the column affecting the big island tonight and Monday. There will be flooding in several areas of the big island of Hawaii late Sunday night and Monday.
Short term forecast and discussion-
A northwest slider will quickly spill some very cold air into the Great Basin as it move east southeast. This system is different than the last cold system in that it is not a true inside slider, its bias is more east than SSE. So it is unlikely to dump the 5 to 6 inches like the last system. Estimates? A trace to 3 inches.