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 Post subject: December stormssss
PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 8:30 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Powder days are on my Christmas list!


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:28 am 
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Dragon's Back
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5 Inches of fresh on my deck this morning... surprise! :clap:

http://mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-mountain-web-cams/

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:36 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Nice to see that 30% of white in town this morning...just as predicted. It was flurrying when we went to bed last night. The wind machine is on today on the hill! 5 & 10 should be opening in a bit, but not the backside until we get more snow.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:02 am 
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Dave's Run
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Awesome. I don't remember even seeing that "storm" on the charts

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 11:34 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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My buddy said that only Solitude is open off chair 5 unfortunately but at least it opens more terrain.

Nice light powder from the surprise storm.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:42 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard called it.

Yesterdays report -

"Chilly weak inside slider will sweep across the Great Basin this Thursday through Friday with some 7 degrees of cooling expected between Thursday and Friday. It will be in the low to mid 30s in the Town of Mammoth and expect a few inches of snowfall as well. Strong wind chills can be expected over the upper elevations Friday so wear face protection. Low temps will be in the low teens."

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2016 10:26 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
^ Yup and if you had signed up for his new subscription Weather Letter off his mammothweather.com page, you would have read that, too!

Plus you could read my "Sierra Lady About Town" weedky blog on there, too! ;)

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"You can’t get too much winter in the winter." — Robert Frost.
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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:57 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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So the mystery is whether this little AR will reach Mammoth or not. Will it snow or rain or nothing at all?


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:12 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
I say will.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:27 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Here is what Howard sez -
(This from the free version of his Weather Letter going out Monday at 12:00 Noon)

Detailed weather analysis and long range forecast http://www.data.mammothweather.com/landing
Fee required.

Free emailed forecasts athttp://mammothweather.com/howards-forecast/alerts/

You heard it here first!

Discussion -


Active pattern returns to the Eastern Sierra with cold wave followed by Atmospheric River

A Sierra Breeze came up Sunday afternoon in Mammoth, an indication that (heights) “pressures aloft” were lowering. A beautiful northwest-southeast sierra wave cloud prevailed much of Sunday afternoon, indicating that the upper jet was to our north.


Technical discussion related to current events-

Many thousand miles away a flood of moisture is being drawn northward by a strong Kona low (a quasi-stationary upper low NW of Kawaii.

The pattern effecting Hawaii at the moment, can be attributed in part to the strong blocking Upper High over the Bering sea which is also related to the warmer than normal SSTs in the Bering Sea this Fall. The Teleconnection name of this Block over or near the Bering Sea is the “negative phase of the WPO”, AKA, the Western Pacific Oscillation. Although SSTA’s in the Bering Sea are cooling, the block continues to redevelop in the foreseeable future.

Over the next several days, the PWAT Plume “Precipitable Water plume” affecting Hawaii, will find its way to “couple” with the westerlies later this week, helping to create a moderate atmospheric river event “AR” for Central and Northern CA.

As a side note, this plume is rich with moisture with the ECMWF model showing isolated areas of 3 inches in the column affecting the big island tonight and Monday. There will be flooding in several areas of the big island of Hawaii late Sunday night and Monday.

Short term forecast and discussion-

A northwest slider will quickly spill some very cold air into the Great Basin as it move east southeast. This system is different than the last cold system in that it is not a true inside slider, its bias is more east than SSE. So it is unlikely to dump the 5 to 6 inches like the last system. Estimates? A trace to 3 inches.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:56 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Tonight's 0z GFS is much more interesting for Mammoth with the AR dropping far enough south that Mammoth is on the southern edge. That also means higher snow levels. Fortunately it looks like 7500 to 8000 feet - could be rain at Canyon but all snow at Main. Maybe several feet?

I'd love to hear what the European model shows.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:02 am 
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Dragon's Back
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Last run of the EU has about 18-24 over Mammoth Mountain over the next 10 days...

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:40 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Check out the long range qpf. If it verifies or comes close it'll set up Mammoth for the holiday season (assuming it's all snow):

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.png


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 12:21 pm 
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Dave's Run
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They need to add a "Crosses fingers" emojii to this forum

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 4:00 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Might need to post some blobbage soon...


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