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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:22 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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No significant changes in the forecast for Mammoth. I'm optimistic about this storm because it's the classic winter storm that really delivers for Mammoth with very cold air, a strong jet, and trajectories out of the Southwest. That combination should deliver higher ratio snow and a great powder day on Christmas. 30" on the mountain seems reasonable although the CNRFC has slightly lower qpf than the wpc. There should be time when it's dumping 2 to 3" of snow per hour tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Only downside is that travel along the 395 North of Bishop looks very dicey tomorrow and possibly early Saturday morning.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:52 pm 
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Climax
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...yes do bring the chains and a rock. Put the rock on the chain installation sheet so it doesn't fly away..
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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:03 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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And right on schedule the storm is starting to move onshore with some light rain along the northern California coast. Should be an interesting couple of days. I just hope travelers heed the warnings.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:15 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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This is a tempting reach for Jan. 7 (technically Jan. 6 afternoon).

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:03 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Reno 9:30pm discussion:

Mono County still looks to be the big winner with 3+ feet possible along the Sierra Crest there and around a foot near highway 395.


That said, the 0z GFS doesn't look nearly as good for qpf totals and the WV loop shows quite a bit of dry air ahead of the cold air. Howard also mentioned that the models indicated that the system is moving faster than originally anticipated:

The QPF’s bull’s-eye has been shifted south to near Mammoth Lakes now with between 2 to 3 feet of cold dry powder expected over the very upper elevations. Snow to water ratios will range from 10:1 then 12:1 with the very back-end of the storm 15:1 is possible. However, the Dweebs point out that a good part of the storm will be at 12:1. So no Platinum Powder Alert. However, the snow will be light and powdery! It will be a very cold holiday weekend! Highs Saturday near 20!…..Lows a little below zero Sunday AM.

The very latest guidance is indicating that the storm is speeding up a bit and so the higher amounts on Mammoth Mt may be in Jeopardy if it moves through faster.


I hope Reno's forecast verifies.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:43 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Its on the way this is by the 50 at aprox 5K..
http://www.pollockpinesweathercam.com/

edit - At the time big fat flakes coming down...

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 12:16 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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I got 1 inch of powder here at my cabin and the sun just came back out....

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 1:06 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Rag-wet-throw.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:13 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Here comes the cold air. Nice looking storm.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:44 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I'm somewhat shocked by the lack of updates today. I know it's the Friday before Christmas but it's snowing people, let's get excited! :)


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:34 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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If Mammoth is going to get anything close to the original forecast of 2 to 3 feet of snow then the next few hours is when it should start dumping.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:55 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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The snow study site is full of it... 5 inches from a inch of QPF is not right

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:12 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Looked like it was holding at an 8:1 ratio so I'm guessing it's close to 9" of snow at the patrol site now. Temperatures haven't dropped yet for the high ratio snow to fall.


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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:31 pm 
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Dave's Run
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http://mammothweather.com/live-current-conditions/current-conditions/

Pressure is dropping, temps are dropping. It's all going to get good.

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 Post subject: Re: December stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:03 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Looks like Santa delivered early to Mammoth (we're in AZ with my family where it's been raining off and on the last couple of days) yesterday with 2.5' of new snow. So glad for the resort for the holidays right now!

Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all my forum friends!

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