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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:21 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
It seems similar to past patterns where the storms are forced to slide down the West because of a big cold Continental ridge.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:30 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
And SoCals very own subtrop cutoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:36 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
A much colder upper-level low approaching from the NW will
likely move through sometime between Friday night and Saturday
night, but once again timing is uncertain, so PoPs no higher than
30%. The latest models do bring this system a little further west,
which means slightly better precip chances. Snow levels with this
system could fall to 4000 ft or lower, which could mean impacts
for the mountain passes such as the Tejon Pass.

Btw I skipped posting some possible intermediary showery periods because of laziness. This is a flip back to unsettled so these models arent a sure thing in the long range.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:02 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The 0z delays the low slightly and doesn't have it quite so cold. Still 4K snow levels maybe lower. Not much moisture with it though.

It still wants a warm wet AR-type system a week later.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:56 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
That Jan. 8-9 storm

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:29 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
The cutoff out SW is picking up the tropical tap again.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:40 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
The latest 12Z gFS has it coming ashore Friday with aprox. .10+".(a tenth plus)
Loz am -
A quick look at rain chances a little further out are a little
troubling. Still looks like a good chance for some rain Thursday
night and Friday with the upper low approaching from the SW, but
the 12z GFS has completely taken away the colder system
approaching from the northwest for Saturday. We'll wait and see what the
12z European model (ecmwf) looks like, but I think its safe to say we won't be
biting too hard on a wet or dry solution with the afternoon
update. The weather pattern is very complicated for Friday through
Sunday and there is still a lot of time for the models to change
their mind.

Rather windy here again.. gusts into 30's and 40's. Am temp's @ 46.
Looks like Monday's parade/game will be dry; for now.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:32 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Still on for the 8th.

Image


Someone start a Jan. thread but you need a clever title.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:18 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
cheapski wrote:
Still on for the 8th.

Image

Someone start a Jan. thread but you need a clever title.


Its worrysome the next 7daze are not as clear/consistent as the 240hrs+.. GIGO comes to mind. In the mean time Im seeing up to .25 now coastal by Sat. And climbing since yesterdays 0.10.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:24 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Isnt the immediate uncertainty due to the erratic nature of that low off the coast though?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:07 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Sooo curious to see if the 1/9 storm comes to be..
Current 18Z GFS shows 4"+ of QPF through 1/10 for LOX/OC/No. SD. :?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 4:34 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Feels like fall (maybe summer).. 72 degrees and tropical clouds...
..at least the wind mellowed out. :clap:
..going to be a cool sunset for some.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:24 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Rain! Big drops bangin off the roof.
Could be up to another inch in 36hrs. Woo!


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:29 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Yeah, it's been raining steadily for hours here in Seal Beach. I have a feeling we have another over achiever!


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Stormcember..
PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:31 am 
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Dave's Run
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Same in Huntington. Nice steady rain.

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