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 Post subject: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am 
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Dave's Run
Dave's Run

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Looks like it will be off to a good start! Hopefully The thread title can stay ;) please post those blobs Cheapski and SNB


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 7:55 am 
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Center Bowl
Center Bowl

Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:59 pm
Posts: 144
Location: Socal
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
446 AM PST Sat Dec 31 2016

One thing to watch is both the EC and GFS are in better agreement
by the following Saturday into early the following week tapping
into some type of Atmospheric River which if the models pan out
could bring copious amounts of precipitation to the region which
could cause some serious flooding and debris flow issues. it`s
still way too early to jump on this, but if models decide to stay
consistent, then this could be a serious weather situation. Just a
heads up at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:10 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
^ Oh please...not a repeat of 1997! :worried:

97 Reno Flood - 20th Anniversary Commemorative Video

Published on Dec 29, 2016
Educational video commemorating the flood that impacted the Sierra and western Nevada in January 1997.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bisSuB ... e=youtu.be

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:19 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
BUY BREAD LOAVES

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 10:54 am 
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Dave's Run
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I have been reading up on the forthcoming event. Most all the forecasters are cautious about calling the "event" for next weekend since it is further than 5 days out. That being said, they are watching this very closely as it could really be "an event".

Does Howard have his finger on the pulse of Mammoth's weather? You bet he does.

From December 15th Weather Letter -

There was a very famous winter in Mammoth Lakes associated with the -WPO….If you research the 500mb reanalysis charts, what you will find is an uncanny resemblance of the pattern of the winter of 1969 to the one that we just went through and one that may reemerge January or February of 2017.


Here is a snippet from Howard's Weather Letter on Thursday 12/29/2016

"Now here comes the interesting part - “IF” during the morph from –EPO to –WPO is very successful, the newly positioned long wave trof will deepen SW and down the west coast and pick up the remains of a Kona low or subtropical low near Hawaii. That could be the big “AR” event since 1969, “if” the valleys like the Owens Valley remain trapped in modified Arctic air.

When? Timing like early the 2nd week of January. It’s a long shot anytime you are thinking about snowfall in feet on the Owens Valley, but this pattern the 2nd week of January is a possibility."

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:35 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
If Howard has anything purpotedly valuable to say and it gets posted here immediately, what value does whatever level of subscription to his wx blast we choose, have in the end anyway?
How do I opt out?

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:04 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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Happy New Year let it dump

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:14 pm 
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Dave's Run
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2NAKLLR wrote:
If Howard has anything purpotedly valuable to say and it gets posted here immediately, what value does whatever level of subscription to his wx blast we choose, have in the end anyway?
How do I opt out?


The info was from two days ago. That's old in Weather age. (purportedly)

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:35 pm 
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Dave's Run
Dave's Run

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^^ I never opted in, but then I never opted in to cable or satellite TV either because there are free alternatives.

My husband has been saying it "feels" like 1969 for several weeks now. He doesn't really follow the weather but was a serious surfer then and attuned to the ocean environment. I just think at some point there is likely to be a repeat of some of the bigger Sierra winters and the two week forecasts from Climate Prediction Center continue to show much colder than normal so hopefully not a repeat of January 1997 - at least not in this storm cycle. February could be a different story if things warm up and there is a big snowpack. California - the state of extremes...


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:47 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Feels like '69 alright.
I was 0yo. The ocean is cold. About as cold as we get down here. 55 in the harbor. Thursday was a fantastic day OTW though. Flat as slate and whale spouts visible for miles.

Well I slowly hit a quarter in. It just misted since yesterday pm and continues to. Im looking forward to the rain rain. No mud please.

Merry New Year.

_________________
I used to be with it, then they changed what it was. Now what I'm with, isn't it, and what's it seems weird and scary to me. It'll happen to yoooouuu.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:56 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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CyberK wrote:
I have been reading up on the forthcoming event. Most all the forecasters are cautious about calling the "event" for next weekend since it is further than 5 days out. That being said, they are watching this very closely as it could really be "an event".


This is crazy! As Whitney once said, "Crack is whack" and so is this.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:14 pm 
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Dave's Run
Dave's Run

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:53 pm
Posts: 1472
2NAKLLR wrote:
Feels like '69 alright.
I was 0yo. The ocean is cold. About as cold as we get down here. 55 in the harbor. Thursday was a fantastic day OTW though. Flat as slate and whale spouts visible for miles.

Well I slowly hit a quarter in. It just misted since yesterday pm and continues to. Im looking forward to the rain rain. No mud please.

Merry New Year.


^^Dating ourselves 🙂 - I was 14 and remember 2 weeks of constant rain in January and another 10 days to 2 weeks in February. We saw every movie in the theaters because my mom was desperate to get us out of the house. My dad was working on projects in Mammoth and kept coming back with stories of people only getting out their second story doors and many lost and smashed cars, including one they found under a snow removal ramp that was very squashed.

We got about 1/2 inch so far after last night's showers came through - so about 5 inches total so far this season at our house. My rubber boots and mud shoes keep getting sucked off my foot.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:37 pm 
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Broadway
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Dating myself here but I was 18 during the 1969 weather events. Have memories of the flooding in the IE and walls of snow in Mammoth that felt like driving though a tunnel. Torn up cars from snow plows. Only received .16" so far here from yesterday till now. Usually get more here than the LA/Orange County area but almost 8" total so far for the year. That's about normal for the rain year starting July 1st.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCASANBE1#history


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:54 pm 
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Center Bowl
Center Bowl

Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:59 pm
Posts: 144
Location: Socal
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
130 PM PST Sat Dec 31 2016

The global models develop a large, positively tilted trough over the
EastPac late next week, which suppresses the westerlies far to the
south and opens the door to a more substantial flow of moisture into
California. The GEM/GFS/ECMWF solutions are similar in the
extended period, except for details like where and when will the
deluge occur. Stay tuned. We are in the running for some of this
by next weekend.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:58 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Posts: 1268
I was living in San Fransisco in '69. I can remember 2 solid weeks of rain. I never considered what it did to the Sierra though.

(is it just me or are the forums a bit sluggish on updating?)

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