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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:25 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
This is when I miss Snowave. If he were snowed in he would just drink a lot of beer and melt a tunnel by peeing his way out.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:15 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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It's like the good old snow days in the Slopes. From my driveway (CHP house) looking up Canyon Blvd

Image

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Last edited by TheSnowman on Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:17 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It's snowed about 2" since 6pm but the real stuff is just pounding the bay area. Radar is impressive.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:20 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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That just went over WG's house... he said get ready for Dumpage!

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:35 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
sdsurf wrote:
SL or anyone else - what would happen if you were say sick or just too tired or lazy to shovel any more snow over the last week, could you realistically get snowed in or would the blower guy eventually create a path for you out of the home?

The blower driver is hired by the condo association to blow/plow our driveways. Period. We don't have high homeowner dues that cover hiring snow shovelers to shovel our porches, decks and in front of our garages like some of the larger projects have. If we were sick or too sore and tired, we'd ask our new, young strapping neighbor or our condo manager to help us. As it is, we have a nice symbiotic relationship with our neighbor in which we shovel for him occasionally and he does the same for us. Nice! If one is simply too lazy to shovel and or move their vehicles for snow removal, the work becomes ten times more difficult and tiring to do later on. We've become so complacent the last five years of drought that our old bodies are screaming at us now!

CyberK wrote:
sdsurf wrote:


SL or anyone else - what would happen if you were say sick or just too tired or lazy to shovel any more snow over the last week, could you realistically get snowed in or would the blower guy eventually create a path for you out of the home?


You would eventually run out of toilet paper and you would have to leave.

CK, you should know us better than that. We have enough TP to get us through the whole season! LOL! :D :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:40 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
This was from noon our time today, but what fun.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

VALID 00Z WED JAN 11 2017 - 00Z SAT JAN 14 2017

...WESTERN U.S...

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT UNDERWAY
IN CALIFORNIA...WITH THE EVENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THEN ABATE LATER THU. 300 MB JET MAXIMA OF 110-130 KT
STREAMING ONSHORE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL AND THEN
SOUTHERN CA SUPPORT COUPLED UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA. THESE PRODUCE LIFT WHICH IS AUGMENTED BY TERRAIN AND HIGH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORTED ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE
MODELS SHOW 3-4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE CA SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE...RESULTING IN 3-4 FEET OF SNOW ON DAY 1.


SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AS THE JET
PERSISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM THE UT WASATCH ACROSS THE RANGES
OF WESTERN CO. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN CA LEADS TO A MAXIMA IN
THE CA SIERRA NEVADA RANGE AGAIN.
THE SNOW WINDS DOWN IN THE
NORTHERN CA SIERRA AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THE REGION...SIGNALING
A FORTHCOMING RESPITE IN HEAVY SNOW ON DAY 3.


QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 11/0000 UTC THRU JAN 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
INCREASED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACRS THE CNTL CA VALLEY REGION BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS.
OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE.

FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INTO MOST OF CALIFORNIA

MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRONG AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE
AFTERNOON--WITH AN EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THESE HEIGHT
FALLS---SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE ENTIRE CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA.
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY THROUGH THE SIERRA WHERE 3-5"+ AMOUNTS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LOCAL MAXIMUM UP TO 7" POSSIBLE.
TOTALS OF
1-2" WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM UP TO 5" POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY THROUGH THE SIERRA.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:53 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Posts: 23178
Location: 240 Hours Out
I have to start reading these more during big events.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/m ... 14&yr=2017

INCREASING FREEZING LEVELS WILL FOLLOW THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT...LIKELY RAISING SNOW LEVELS IN THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA
INTO THE 7000-8000 FT RANGE FOR 6-9 HOURS AFTER 00Z. THIS WARM UP
WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN/HR.

12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 07Z ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3-4 INCHES FOR THE NRN AND CNTRL CA COASTAL
RANGES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN SIERRA NEVADA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE WITH SOME HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:00 pm 
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Broadway
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Posts: 33
Yeah, and looks like still much more digging to come!


Each night for the past few days I have been on the fence about driving up and usually set 9pm as my cutoff. With my forecast that tomorrow will be more of the same as today and the last few days (closures) I will have to pass on another day and re-asses tomorrow night for a Thursday session. Hopefully for all in town they are able miraculously able to run a few decent lifts tomorrow.

Was really hoping to get in some pow days before the weekend onslaught arrives and then spend the weekend at the place that sux.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:15 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Posts: 1834
cheapski wrote:
I see PE395

Image

I do remember having problems leaving MM, usually from 203 to the Sherwin Summit, with drifting snow.


Haha! I forgot to post our drive report. Left town about 2. It was pretty much bluebird and clear roads by the time we reached the airport, and all the way home. Some water still hanging around on 395 near Olancha, and visible evidence of some flooding. Probably pretty nasty on the road earlier.


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:16 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
If it helps at all, there's a 5 day nice and sunny break before the next big event on the 20th.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:41 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Well this is the last hurrah for about 5 days. Most of the precip is in the next 24 hours.

It'll be strange to see qpf charts with no colors for California.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:46 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Posts: 1271
Location: Orange County, CA
Incredibly jealous.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:49 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Posts: 15043
Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
We will be so thankful for the rest. Hoping lots of snow can get hauled out of town during that time. I'm booking a massage for next week!

9:30 p.m. Good news from Caltrans District 9:

Quote:
The Hi-Profile Vehicle Prohibition on Hwy 395 from Pearsonville to Lone Pine is NOW CANCELLED!! Winds have calmed down to safe speeds at this time. Motorists are advised to be alert as heavy truck traffic will be going south from Lone Pine.

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Last edited by Sierra Lady on Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:58 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
The latest 00Z GFS for later part next week...a bit of a flow again.
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... c_pwat.gif

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 Post subject: Re: Ginormous January stormssss
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:01 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Posts: 23178
Location: 240 Hours Out
Spirit Tree wrote:
The latest 00Z GFS for later part next week...a bit of a flow again.
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... c_pwat.gif

I'm too lazy to make a gif tonight, so from the 19th-22nd.
http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_00z_thck.shtml

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