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 Post subject: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:50 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
I'm ready for a few days. Fresh bread and SeaPoop.
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cheapski wrote:
We need a new bread thread.

12Z on steroids!

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If I'm reading that right, its 9" of rain in 36 hours. :o


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 8:28 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Someone took me literally.

Square bread?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 10:41 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Its a box. The top fell a little. Speaking pastry. Check out the cinamon rolL coming down. Seems W enough to me.
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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 11:43 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
LOX tonight

Further out into the future, computers have been steadily trending
toward a large and slow moving trough settling off the state of
Washington. The orientation of the low and the slowness of it
would result in an extended period of moist southwest flow
streaming over California which some call an Atmospheric River.
With this being so far out there much can change, but if this
materializes to any resemblance of what the models are showing
now, this would be a significant storm with a lot of rain.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:23 am 
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Dave's Run
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LOX has been more bullish on the big storm than SD or Reno.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 10:37 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I think SoCal may be just coming into the period, so its lighter for now.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:18 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern setting up
across California this week. a broad upper level high will set up
across the gulf of Alaska. Several low pressure systems will
undercut this high and ride the zonal jet stream bringing chances
for rain across the forecast area. There continue to be timing
issues between the models, but as stated earlier, the european
model has been more reliable over the past few storm systems. The
EC continues to bring in showers across the forecast area and
Wednesday seems to be the best bet for rain to occur. Still too
early to get a handle on how much rain will occur, but based on
the subtropical tap, amounts could be pretty good as warmer storms
can hold more water content. Snow levels will likely be fairly
high based. High temps are expected to remain rather cool, but
lows should be warm enough that freeze concerns should not be an
issue for most areas away from interior locations.

Further out into the future, models have been trending toward a
large and slow moving trough settling off the state of Washington.
The orientation of the low and the slowness of it would result in
an extended period of moist southwest flow streaming over
California known as an Atmospheric River. With this being so far
out there much can change, but if this materializes to any
resemblance of what the models are showing now, this would be an
extensive rain event which would likely bring flooding, debris and mud flows. Stay tuned.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:34 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
THE DETAILS ALONG THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER...ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE STREAM INTERACTIONS BENEATH A VERY LARGE AND MODERATELY ANOMALOUS GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE. SOLUTIONS WHICH AVOID PHASING OF DIFFERENT FEATURES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INCLUDE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...AND GIVEN THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS / METWATCH PREFERENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM WE DID NUDGE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF...RESULTING IN SOME MEANINGFUL CHANGE /INCREASED AMOUNTS / BETWEEN THE PRELIMINARY AND FINAL QPF. STILL...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WE MAINTAINED A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN EVEN THE BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. OUR 48-HOUR TOTALS PAINT 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES LIQUID...ON AVERAGE FOR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR 1 INCH EXTENDING DOWN TOWARD MONTEREY. IF THE UPPER LOW...FEEDING OFF THE COLD NORTHERN STREAM AIR...REMAINS AS ROBUST AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THERE COULD BE MORE OF A SPIKE IN ONSHORE WINDS AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASINGLY TAPPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION / NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF AVERAGES 2.0 TO 4.0 INCHES LIQUID IN THESE SAME AREAS. WE INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 3. HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I'm confused, the WPC is saying the Euro doesnt support phasing but then says that model does suggest heavier precip.? Isnt that contradictory? Phasing should enhance rainfall.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:42 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Youre MODERATELY ANOMALOUS.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:12 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Sadly I'm VERY LARGE.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:15 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Is this shifting north?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:21 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The qpf definitely has more precipitation north of Sacramento now. Still plenty farther south just not the extreme amounts of previous runs. I think that's a result of the splitting that's being forecast.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 4:24 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
LOX

LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

Long range computer models continue to advertise an active weather
pattern setting up across California during the extended period.
On Thursday and Friday, most of the precipitation is expected to
be focused on the northern half of the state. There is a chance of
light rain across our forecast area on Thursday, shifting to
areas north of Point Conception on Friday.

The main focus of the extended forecast will be Saturday into
Sunday, and possibly Monday when computer models have been
trending towards a large low pressure system developing off the
state of Washington. This storm system with its associated strong
southwest-northeast jet stream is expected to maintain an extended
period of moist southwest flow over California (with precipitable
water values up to 1.6 inches off our coast), known as an
Atmospheric River. While there is fairly good confidence that an
Atmospheric River heavy rainfall event will occur somewhere in
Central or Southern California this weekend, there are still
considerable uncertainties in the duration, location, and
magnitude of this heavy rain event. The 12z ECMWF model continues
to hold onto a longer duration event into Monday, with the focus
of heaviest rainfall north of Point Conception. The 12z GFS model
brings a more widespread heavy rainfall event across our forecast
area, but has most of the rainfall ending by Sunday night and
therefore storm total rainfall amounts are less than what previous
GFS model runs had over the past couple of days. Interestingly,
the 18z GFS model run has reverted to a longer duration event with
much higher storm totals more similar to previous runs.

Taking a look at the atmospheric river diagnostic tools, there is
high confidence of IVT (Integrated Water Vapor Transport) values
reaching 250 kg/m/s for this event across our forecast area
sometime this weekend, with mean GFS ensemble IVT values somewhere
around 400 kg/m/s. This type of available moisture combined with
south- southwest wind flow will bring the potential for
significant orographic rainfall across our south and southwest
facing coastal slopes. Due to the subtropical nature of this
system, snow levels are expected to remain high through the
weekend. While the details on duration, magnitude, and location of
this moisture plume will become more clear through the week, there
is the potential for a heavy rain event across Southwest
California next weekend which could pose significant flash flood
with mud and debris flow issues across Southwest California,
especially for the recent burn areas. Stay tuned!

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:04 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Latest 00Z GFS through 21Z 1/09. QPF is what it was at about 3 daze ago. With the bulk headed to So. LA/ OC. Totals are at aprox. 4" when cursed.(the action of moving a cursor over a specific point) ;)
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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:24 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
The AR event over the weekend. The stream is back and pointed at us! This reminds me of 2005 with that big L wheeling storms in.

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