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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:34 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
What will we get? Something yet to develop on the tail end of that line of clouds?

Look at whats peeking into view on the left. Is that an indication of where the plume is going?
http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=35

Image


Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:34 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Another statewide storm possible?

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 10:38 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
LOX 8:35 PM

.UPDATE...

A very small short wave and its associated PVA brought a small but
intense cluster of Thunderstorms all the way from 120 miles west
of Point Conception through the SBA channel and the SBA south
coast and then into Ojai Santa paula area as well as the VTA mtns.
These thunderstorms were really putting on quite the light show as
well as a 20 minute downpour. There is a little break in the
action for the Central Coast but the rain will likely reform a
little before midnight. A weak ridge building in from the south
will keep the area south of Point Conception rain free and will
slowly shunt the rain north out of SBA county and most (or all) of
SLO county overnight.

The forecast was updated to reduce pops south of Point Conception
tonight.

Wind advisories are currently not doing too well but should pick
up soon and in fact might have to be xtnd into tomorrow.

Otherwise forecast is in good shape. 00Z NAM continues to show the
cold front with good rain moving through the SLO/SBA/VTA counties
tomorrow night and then ruining the L.A. Monday morning commute.
As mentioned before the rain with this system will be higher
intensity and shorter duration.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:37 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
New 48 hr QPF which kept in the higher rainfall.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:50 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
On Thursday a trof (GFS) or a full blown upper low (EC) will move
down and over the state. The EC`s soln is much wetter and more
dynamic. For now just just brought a chc of rain to the area and
will watch to see how this develops. Thursday looks to be the
coolest day of the week with max temps dropping another few
degrees from Wednesdays already chilly readings. Since it will be
such a cool day the snow levels will be quite low and the mountain
passes could be affected.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:35 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Last VIS of the day. Come on rain! Clouds are now moving in. There's lightning offshore on a line with San Diego.
http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightnin ... php?map=35

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:08 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Keeping an eye on the march south from the south...
Image[/quote]
Lightning detected off Oceanside(little squares)
Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:47 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I like this 48 hr qpf because it shows pretty good precip for all of areas of state that are still suffering the most from drought. The central coast down to LA really needs solid precip.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:35 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Its almost our turn now!

In the WV loop, what is that bloom of clouds at the base of the AR down in the tropics? Do you think that gets transported up to us? Edit: for timing maybe its Chicago's problem.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:47 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I'm not sure if that'll get transported up quickly enough to hit SoCal.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:59 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It began raining here a short while ago, lets see what happens.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:07 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Pretty much done here; the main band. .79" came down in 2-3 hours.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:51 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I ended up with .90". Not unusual but its still decent.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:14 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Squeezed out 1/3in down this far. Im low compared to other local gauges which got to 4/10. Still pretty damp out w low ceiling.

I still like the next 7daze forward then a bit of a break?


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:19 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
A break then another big storm event for the 20th! The GFS has been rock steady with that one so far, and its cold and wet.

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