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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Less than 2/10 here and still drizzle. The next "storm" is the one that has had the most modelwobble. It could be great w lots of cold rain or a grazing. Hard to see exactly in the loop what is predicted in the models in just 2daze.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:49 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: 240 Hours Out
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.

Was it the flow orientation? I doubled the forecast rainfall.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:56 am 
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Center Bowl
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Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:41 pm
Posts: 430
Location: Pine Mountain Club, CA
cheapski wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.

Was it the flow orientation? I doubled the forecast rainfall.


The flow looked like a normal SW flow, but the front broke apart as it was coming down the coast. I don't know if it was a pocket of dry air or what, but the rainfall that was left just hugged the coast/foothills and couldn't penetrate any further inland.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:08 pm 
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Climax
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Location: Manzanita Mesa
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:32 pm 
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Broadway
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Got about an inch here.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCASANBE1


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:39 pm 
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Center Bowl
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Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:41 pm
Posts: 430
Location: Pine Mountain Club, CA
Stephen wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100


Sorry for the generalizations. Some areas got completely missed though. Big Bear Lake got less than a tenth of an inch. Wrightwood got a quarter inch. Not your typical storm.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:30 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Posts: 22608
Location: 240 Hours Out
2NAKLLR wrote:
Less than 2/10 here and still drizzle. The next "storm" is the one that has had the most modelwobble. It could be great w lots of cold rain or a grazing. Hard to see exactly in the loop what is predicted in the models in just 2daze.

The 12Z GFS keeps it over water in a sweet spot! If it verifies it could be a good snowmaker locally. Friday afternoon:

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:35 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2010 9:35 am
Posts: 513
As long as it's gone by Saturday and Sunday I'll be happy! (Golfing both days)


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:49 pm 
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Center Bowl
Center Bowl

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:41 pm
Posts: 430
Location: Pine Mountain Club, CA
Wow the extended GFS forecast looks awesome, I really hope it pans out! Only 9 days out now, so it seems more and more likely every day. Looks like a ton of precip and low snow levels.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:51 pm 
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Climax
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Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:48 pm
Posts: 2077
Location: Manzanita Mesa
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Stephen wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100


Sorry for the generalizations. Some areas got completely missed though. Big Bear Lake got less than a tenth of an inch. Wrightwood got a quarter inch. Not your typical storm.


I am sorry for coming off as snippy/pedantic/whatevs. I do that sometimes. (OK, a bit more than that. :rofl: )


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:44 pm 
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Center Bowl
Center Bowl

Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2009 2:59 pm
Posts: 144
Location: Socal
Heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) for parts of central and southern California, Thu, Jan 19.
Heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) is expected to shift into the southern Sierras and southern California by Jan 19. The risk of heavy snow increases across the Great Basin and southwestern U.S. during Week-2 but uncertainty on snowfall amounts precludes the designation of a heavy snow hazard at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:17 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:14 pm
Posts: 22608
Location: 240 Hours Out
Check your forecast tables. My precip went from .28" on today's forecast to .78" for the event.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:14 pm
Posts: 22608
Location: 240 Hours Out
Animation of the cold storm coming in.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:53 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joined: Wed Oct 29, 2008 9:14 pm
Posts: 22608
Location: 240 Hours Out
The next series of storms starting on Jan. 18th

Image


BTW it began raining here pretty hard for a while.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:42 am 
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Climax
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Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:04 pm
Posts: 2203
Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
^^nice animation. 8-) See if the models hold up.
This was yesterdays (1-11) rain. The amounts varied quite a bit. The Santa Susanas went from 1.14" to .06", just a few miles. I received .37" just couple miles from the 1.14". The south side of the San Gabs took the bacon.
Image

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