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SoCal WX: January Bread Thread
http://easternsierraforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=19082
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Author:  2NAKLLR [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Less than 2/10 here and still drizzle. The next "storm" is the one that has had the most modelwobble. It could be great w lots of cold rain or a grazing. Hard to see exactly in the loop what is predicted in the models in just 2daze.

Author:  cheapski [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.

Was it the flow orientation? I doubled the forecast rainfall.

Author:  Ben Goldberg [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

cheapski wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.

Was it the flow orientation? I doubled the forecast rainfall.


The flow looked like a normal SW flow, but the front broke apart as it was coming down the coast. I don't know if it was a pocket of dry air or what, but the rainfall that was left just hugged the coast/foothills and couldn't penetrate any further inland.

Author:  Stephen [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100

Author:  MtnViper [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Got about an inch here.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KCASANBE1

Author:  Ben Goldberg [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Stephen wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100


Sorry for the generalizations. Some areas got completely missed though. Big Bear Lake got less than a tenth of an inch. Wrightwood got a quarter inch. Not your typical storm.

Author:  cheapski [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

2NAKLLR wrote:
Less than 2/10 here and still drizzle. The next "storm" is the one that has had the most modelwobble. It could be great w lots of cold rain or a grazing. Hard to see exactly in the loop what is predicted in the models in just 2daze.

The 12Z GFS keeps it over water in a sweet spot! If it verifies it could be a good snowmaker locally. Friday afternoon:

Image

Author:  bretfarewell [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

As long as it's gone by Saturday and Sunday I'll be happy! (Golfing both days)

Author:  Ben Goldberg [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Wow the extended GFS forecast looks awesome, I really hope it pans out! Only 9 days out now, so it seems more and more likely every day. Looks like a ton of precip and low snow levels.

Author:  Stephen [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Ben Goldberg wrote:
Stephen wrote:
Ben Goldberg wrote:
Man what a weird storm. Pine Mountain Club got literally no rain/snowfall, but I guess it was a decent storm for the LA basin. It doesn't look like any of the SoCal mountains got anything more than a tenth of an inch actually. I sure hope tomorrow's storm is nothing like this last storm. The rain in LA is great but the mountains is where it really needs to fall.


Just the "wrong" mountains. I should be doing something else, so I'll leave it your sharp eyes to make out the separation between precip total and location elevation.

Quote:
1. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 2.00 2335
2. RIMFOREST 1.90 5710
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 1.89 1766
4. LARSON RANCH 1.81 2121
5. CABLE CANYON 1.69 5516
6. CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 1.61 1556
7. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 1.57 6076
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 1.40 4230
9. DEER CREEK DAM 1.34 2917
10.CRESTLINE 1.30 5100


Sorry for the generalizations. Some areas got completely missed though. Big Bear Lake got less than a tenth of an inch. Wrightwood got a quarter inch. Not your typical storm.


I am sorry for coming off as snippy/pedantic/whatevs. I do that sometimes. (OK, a bit more than that. :rofl: )

Author:  liftedtacoma [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) for parts of central and southern California, Thu, Jan 19.
Heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) is expected to shift into the southern Sierras and southern California by Jan 19. The risk of heavy snow increases across the Great Basin and southwestern U.S. during Week-2 but uncertainty on snowfall amounts precludes the designation of a heavy snow hazard at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php

Author:  cheapski [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Check your forecast tables. My precip went from .28" on today's forecast to .78" for the event.

Author:  cheapski [ Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

Animation of the cold storm coming in.

Image

Author:  cheapski [ Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

The next series of storms starting on Jan. 18th

Image


BTW it began raining here pretty hard for a while.

Author:  Spirit Tree [ Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: SoCal WX: January Bread Thread

^^nice animation. 8-) See if the models hold up.
This was yesterdays (1-11) rain. The amounts varied quite a bit. The Santa Susanas went from 1.14" to .06", just a few miles. I received .37" just couple miles from the 1.14". The south side of the San Gabs took the bacon.
Image

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