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 Post subject: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:51 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Well we can't forget about April storms...when, where, who knows..
Even LoX has ?s
Long term...(fri-mon)

"Models not in perfect agreement by any means for the late
week/weekend system but enough so that confidence is definitely
higher that most, if not all areas will see at least some rain by
Saturday. The GFS is definitely tapping into more moisture than
the European model (ecmwf) and has pretty impressive southwest flow aloft which
is generating significant upslope precip enhancement in the model
qpf for nrn slo County on Friday. This may be a bit overdone but
either way it looks like a solid chance of rain for areas north of
pt Conception Friday into early Saturday. Not quite as confident
about southern areas yet as the ec is weaker overall with the
system and again much less in the moisture department. But leaned
the forecast towards the wetter GFS and increased pops to 40-50%
for la/Ventura counties late Friday into Saturday. Not likely a
big rain event there but enough to notice."
After reading this I'm still confused...April is known for some surprises.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:57 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Quote:
...There are now
nearly 75 percent of ensemble members showing an inland moisture
plume making it down to 35N

Thats a little N of Santa Maria in SLO county.
LOX is all over it. They always have that CenCal lean. SGX sees marine layer. May gray in April.
Grapril.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:09 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Precipitable water values...Current GFS 18Zz for Fri. & Sat.
Image
Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:00 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Hmm that might be down to 34!
33 would be better.
GFS is definitely more wet.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:44 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Come on GFS! It aint over yet.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 6:29 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
The mystery continues....
Lox this Am regarding Friday/Saturday.
"Rainfall amounts are the big problem. The GFS taps into quite a
bit of moisture and produces about 5 times the amount of rainfall
than the ec does
. Will hold off from guessing about what is going
to happen for now. The NAM forecast will extend into this period
later today and hopefully will shed a little light on the rainfall
issues."

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:02 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Quote:
SGX 1345
The weather gets a little more active Friday and Saturday when a
cold front sweeps southward and brings rain, cooler weather and
gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. A deep 500 mb closed
low west of Oregon on Friday will punch a strong jet stream and an
atmospheric river into central CA. Rain and mountain snow with this
first wave will pass by to our north, but a second shortwave will
dig the trough farther south Friday night and drag a cold front
across SoCal Saturday.


Moisture is sufficient for rain with precipitable water of 1.00-
1.25". A limiting factor for QPF may be be the lack of strong PVA,
and a moderately weak thermodynamic profile (500 mb temps only lower
to -15-20C). Nevertheless, we should get some rain in most areas
(except perhaps the lower deserts) with enhanced amounts on the
western mountain slopes in moderately strong onshore flow. Snow
levels will be high at the onset, around 10kft, but fall to 7kft
feet Saturday when some accumulation on the higher SBD and RIV
County mountains.

Saturday baby.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:50 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I'm up in the Bay Area and the forecast says "Heavy Rain" but the amounts are for periods of half an inch. Are these WFOs overblowing the descriptions? Heavy to me means over an inch.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:18 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
snowhottie wrote:
I'm up in the Bay Area and the forecast says "Heavy Rain" but the amounts are for periods of half an inch. Are these WFOs overblowing the descriptions? Heavy to me means over an inch.

I guess the SF Bay forecast covers a rather large area.
I was reading discussion from SF this morning or yesterday and they were saying 5" in the Santa Lucia Mountains, coastal range by Big Sur.

Todays Disc...The global forecast system (gfs) is predicting a
pocket of very heavy rain over the highest peaks of the Big Sur
coast of Monterey County Friday where rainfall accumulations may
be near 10 inches.

https://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDis ... Aptos&MR=1

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:27 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Huh. Now an inch forecast for the rainforest.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:22 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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LOX now
Given the strong southwest flow between 850-700mb and
relatively slow movement initially the higher amounts on the GFS
seem reasonable in that area. Rain expected to start up there
in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning and advance slowly southeast
through the day, probably not reaching western LA County until
well into the evening. This is an atmospheric river event with
pwats around 1.3"
, which is just a tad down from yesterday`s
models. Still this is a favorable pattern for the Central Coast,
particularly coastal SLO County so amounts there should be easily
over an inch and likely 3+" in the coastal mountains.

Further south confidence continues to increase in wetting rains
across the area Friday night into very early Saturday, though
lower confidence on amounts. There`s still good moisture to work
with, though the direction of the low lvl winds not quite as
favorable for the best lift. Quarter to half inch probably still
adequately covers most of Ventura/LA counties, especially
coast/valleys, but there`s a small chance that some upslope areas
could sneak out an inch or more simply due to the high moisture
content, especially if it continues to move slowly through the
area. Rainfall rates not likely to be a problem, more just the
possibility of a longer duration of light to moderate rain.

With this being an AR event snow levels will be mostly above
9000`, though some lowering at the very end could result in an
inch or two of accumulation down to around 7000`.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:54 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
All I know is I'm ready for the 10 degree cool down tomorrow... :sweat:

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:26 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Grapril.
86-68° ish isnt uncommon in the inland/onshore flow boundary areas. Looking like 0.10" 72hr total down here.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:52 am 
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Quick snap of state's 48 hr. totals. Can see where so cal gets leftovers.. My leftovers total .22" over night.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal April Mystery Stormssss..
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:44 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Bust.
50% of forecast total.


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