Both the GFS and the EC agree (and have been remarkably
consistent) with their previous thinking that the trof will cut
off into a big wobbly upper low. There is not much energy around
to force the low to move on so it will likely wobble through at
least early Tuesday and if the EC is to be believed Wednesday. The
EC forecasts more moisture with the system and puts down more
rainfall. This kind of system will make for a very tough forecast.
It is going to be likely that at any given time some of the area
will have clouds and showers while other parts will be partly
cloudy and dry. Then a while later other parts will be wet and
dry. Really best to broad brush the forecast. Snow levels will be
rather low esp for this time of the year and will be between 5000
and 6000 feet. No thunder in the official forecast yet will have
to wait and see how much cold air aloft there is with the low.

Snow in SoCal in May?

Do want.

Stolen from SnS



Last night when I looked it only had half an inch for Socal!

A nice slow wobbly L in the bight will do that. Complete w flip flops and wide variations in precip and conditions. Cant wait.

Really don't want to over think this one. Temps that are going to be 30 degrees cooler hEre, precip would be an added bonus.
This AM LoX disc did get me thinking...
a snipet.
"Sunday currently looks like the best bet for fairly widespread
showers at times along with the slight chance of thunderstorms.
The thunderstorm threat will be largely dependent on the exact
track of the system as well as the extent solar heating near the
surface. The increased cloud cover, precipitation, and heights of
only 550-555 dm will support highs generally in the 60s. Snow
levels with this system could drop down to 6000 feet and briefly
as low as 4500 feet. Gusty onshore to northwest winds are likely
across many areas on Sunday. "

xposting SnS




Is this real life or is it fantasy?

I'm too lazy to post it but the CNRFC has similar qpf amounts. That increases my confidence that it's a real possibility. Still only medium confidence though.

Nothing like we had over the winter...it is May. and a bit wobbly. Going east and then south..?
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... 10-100.gif

The path is shifting towards San Diego.



LOX

LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

By Sunday the cut-off low is nearly overhead bringing continued
showers and cloudy conditions along with the slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to fall further with
high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to mid 60 except
much colder at higher elevations Locally gusty northwesterly winds
are also expected. Early rainfall estimates through Sunday are
generally less than half an inch except for locally higher amounts
in the mountains and any thunderstorms that form. Early snowfall
estimates are 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible
mainly above 5000 feet.

Model guidance begins to diverge by early next week leading to low
confidence in the forecast from Monday on. The EURO is about 12
hours slower than the GFS is pushing the cut-off low to the east
with GFS ensembles generally somewhere in between the two
operational solutions. The current forecast package leans towards
the slower EURO given the nature of cut-off lows and a lack of a
significant kicker to push it east early in the week.

X-post

Just minor variance in the qpf each run.

^^The precip field overall is getting dragged further south though.

A dramatic change up in the Bay Area from the high temps of the last 2 days. As night fell high clouds above and a thick marine layer below were rushing in. The temp. has dropped like a rock. I expect the same for SoCal.

Precip has been completely taken out of the SF forecast now. There is a 4700 ft. snow level for SoCal on the weather table though. Chilly. Lots of cold air over the ocean can be seen on satellite.

^^yesterday late afternoon it dropped from mid 90's to mid/lower 70's in about an hour. Talk about a/c being turned on...

This might be the last weekend of season to see the snow fly...then again there's Mother's day. Seems like more often than not the news is showing fresh snow that has fallen on the flowers for that day in the local mountains. Don't know the stats just going by recollection ...?

Ive got a San G permit for the 13th. Id prefer less than 6in fresh.

That sounds like fun...they wanted to make that a ski resort/mountain in the 40's.