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 Post subject: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:42 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Rain rain rain?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:28 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
Rain rain rain?

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I would love for that to verify. I'm sick of this nasty dry weather and my lawn is nearly dead.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:47 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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I see drying. Maybe its just a wobble.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 2:04 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Wobbled back.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:15 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Nice L headed for AZ.
Wonder if that wraparound is anything in the sierra?
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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:39 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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X post. Its more consistent now.

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Socal gets it more Sunday - Tues.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:33 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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So much for consistency. Something dried up there.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:48 am 
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Center Bowl
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Hope it shifts back.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:01 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
The precip water values for so Cal next week look nice.
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... 10-100.gif

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:38 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
lOX - this evening. It's flip flop season again...

"Confidence remains low with the precip forecast through early next
week as models continue to exhibit large run to run and model to
model differences. The operational run of the GFS continues to be
on the very high end of the ensemble spectrum in terms of precip
output while the European model (ecmwf) remains very light. The issue continues to
be how much moisture the trough will tap into as it sags south
into central and Southern California late in the weekend and it's
very likely we'll be dealing with this dilemma into the weekend."

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:08 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Rain!
More than a drizzle and the gutters are running.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:31 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Nothing in LB. I didn't hang out clothes to dry today though. Probably time to finally get the drier fixed :doh:

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:23 am 
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Center Bowl
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Looking and feeling kind of threatening here in Huntington Beach. Clouds are thickening. Just starting to get a very light drizzle.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:43 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Coastal OC.
w00t!
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 Post subject: Re: SoCal Flowvember?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:15 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
It's never going to rain again...
Time to wash your cars, tear off the roof, start that exterior paint project...Did I miss anything?

Official LoX discussion about this situation..
GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions continue to disagree on the exact timing
of another trough of low pressure affecting the area for late next
week. GFS solutions are more aggressive with the moisture and a
pattern more favorable for Southern California relative to the
European model (ecmwf) solutions, but moderate confidence exists for a period of
cooler, cloudy and unsettled weather as early as late Wednesday
night or early Thursday morning and as late as Saturday. Slight
chance to chance pops have been reintroduced into the forecast for
late next week. If GFS solutions are correct, a moist air mass
could move over the region in southwest flow. 850 mb mixing ratios
climb to near 9 g/kg, which is impressive for a Fall storm
system. For now, mostly cloudy skies with mentions of rain/showers
seems the best approach until model solutions offer up a bit
better agreement. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday remain on
the cool side of guidance.

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