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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:42 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Oroville is only 33% full and 55% of avg for the date so they have plenty of storage space even for a 10" AR. I hope the repairs were done correctly because it would be nice to have a repeat of last winter's big totals.

Here it comes...

Image


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:51 am 
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Broadway
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:clap:


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:00 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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I dont know what those radar returns are from because its dry and only partly cloudy with high clouds out there.

The subtropical feed can be seen being picked up by that L starting to drop down now.

Image

Posting this from the Monterey disco because of the W to E component. Wouldnt that favor the precip. in the Sierra?

This mid-week rain/wind set up does have differences compared to the
heavy rain on Nov 8th. There`s an AR with IVT approaching 750 kg/m/s
for one. However, NAEFS shows only brief +2 standard deviation of the
v (which is the south-north) component of the wind Wed afternoon while
a stronger u (west-east) develops and is longer in duration. A low
amplitude 500 mb flow and decreasing heights accompanied by a much
more prevalent west to east component to the wind
may tend to stretch
this system possibly separating the better dynamics from the increasing
precipitable water plume or AR which could help mitigate rain rates
somewhat. Lots of guess work here, but worth mentioning as it has
happened before with frontal passages. Nonetheless potential remains
for a period of moderate to heavy rain and wind, the heaviest favoring
where topographically forced SW flow, warm air advection, and shearing
and strengthening of frontal dynamics combine.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:27 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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7 day. Only Day 3 has no rain.

Image

Time to read the Mesoscale Precip Discussions! Updates every 3 hours.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd.php

They are throwing around Atmospheric River a lot.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:41 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Reno this AM -
Mono county:
liquid totals through Thursday evening look similar and in the
2-4"+ range with up to 6" right along the Sierra crest. Snow
levels will be a bit higher and in the 8,000-8,500' range. Snow
totals in the High Sierra over 8000 feet will be around 2-3 feet
with localized areas up to 4'+ along the Sierra crest.
Hanford this AM
As is the case with AR events, the precipitation is terrain driven
as the moist air from the Pacific comes ashore in strong southwest
or west winds. The flow is perpendicular to the Sierra slopes and
with the terrain forcing, heavy rains and higher elevation snow is
common. Conversely, in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County
Desert areas, downsloping winds from mountains to the west will
limit or sometimes even eliminate precipitation. This evening
looks to be a classic AR case.

So what does all of this mean. With snow levels starting out
rather high, at around 7500 feet in the mixed western Sierra
slopes and with warmer air moving ashore in the southwest flow,
only higher elevations will see the precipitation staying solely
in the form of snow. Current winter storm warning looks on track
as latest quantitative precipitation forecasts wring out 2.5 to
3+ feet of snow over higher terrain in Yosemite with lessening
amounts to the south.A rundown of potential rain and
snow totals based on latest data indicates up to 4" of rain near
Yosemite and 2.5" over parts of Sequoia Park.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:53 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Beginning of the AR train..
Image

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:02 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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My forecast precip for this event went back to 1.86". :o :rain:

Its cloudy but dry here. That radar is over eager.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:21 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
snowhottie wrote:
My forecast precip for this event went back to 1.86". :o :rain:

Its cloudy but dry here. That radar is over eager.


Then the screen on here says radar down for maintenance....go figure.
Glad to see the B Slugs will be getting wet today..as long as they don't float away.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:04 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Got wind? Flurrying on the hill right now. Light rain up north of Bridgeport and moving down. (edited: raining lightly here in town right now with the sun out!)

Hoping this system brings enough new snow to open more lifts and run before the Thanksgiving hordes arrive.

P.S. Sonora closed the night before last, Tioga closed yesterday morning and the Lakes Basin road will re-close again today at 3:00 p.m.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:27 am 
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Center Bowl
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Mono county:
liquid totals through Thursday evening look similar and in the
2-4"+ range with up to 6" right along the Sierra crest. Snow
levels will be a bit higher and in the 8,000-8,500' range. Snow
totals in the High Sierra over 8000 feet will be around 2-3 feet
with localized areas up to 4'+ along the Sierra crest.


This last Saturday I got a hike in up to Duck Lake pass and then on Sunday I did a little bike ride around the lakes basin, planted some tulip bulbs, transplanted some aspens and hooked up the roof de-icing cables. Looks like my timing was very fortuitous.
I know it's very premature but so far I like the way things are developing this winter. I'm very optimistic and I hope things remain active over the next 4 - 5 months. I would love to have a repeat of last year where every morning when I got to work I would have a couple of pages of posts and pics to catch up on here. :clap: :rock:


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:03 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Current 48hr qpf. I'm impressed with the totals and happy to see how far south it goes unlike the storm early this month. Looks like a great setup for some nice base-building snow above 8,500ft.

Image

CNRFC 6 day:

Image


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:25 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Yikes. 5" in 48 hours is not what those fire victims in the north Bay need.

My forecast!

Rain, mainly after 10pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 56. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

My precip has been bumped up to 2.17"! Clouds are streaming in overhead but from the NW.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:00 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Today's NWS forecast for Main Lodge adds up to 32-50". 24 to 36" just tonight and tomorrow. Seems like awfully low ratio snow based on temps so that forecast seems high to me but I'm hoping it's correct.


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:53 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From NWS Reno-

The first significant atmospheric river event of the season is
just starting to move into the west. Light rain and high elevation
snow is falling throughout northeast California, the Sierra and
western Nevada. Precipitation will only intensify over the next 36
hours with snow levels a bit slower to fall. Winds are slowly
starting to pick up, with the strongest winds anticipated this
afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

Here is what has changed:

* Increased QPF (liquid precipitation) totals along the Sierra
crest. NCAR ensemble guidance is showing a 70% chance for
localized areas of 10" of liquid over a 48 hour period along the
central Sierra crest. In addition, model guidance continued to
trend upward in liquid totals.


* An areal flood watch was issued for portions of northeast
California, the Sierra, and the western Nevada Sierra Front.
While mainstem river flooding is not expected, significant rises
are likely. Small creeks and streams along with poor drainage
areas in urban areas and recent burn scars may see minor
flooding. While not in the watch, Hardscrabble Creek will also
bear monitoring.

* Extended the strong winds through Thursday night. Winds will be
periodically be dampened out by the heavier precipitation, but are
expected to continue to be gusty. The High Wind Warnings will be
extended by 12 hours through Thursday afternoon.

What we have confidence in:

* Strong, potentially damaging winds for the Sierra Front and along
the I-590/Hwy 395 corridor. The strongest winds are anticipated
this afternoon through Thursday afternoon, though gusty winds
will continue through Thursday night.

* Period of moderate to heavy rain with significant snowfall for
areas above 8000 feet. The peak intensity will be tonight through
Thursday evening.

* Liquid totals of 7-8" look likely along the Sierra crest with 2-4"
through the Tahoe Basin. 1-3" is possible for the western Nevada
Sierra Front and the Highway 395 corridor in Mono County. 0.25"-
0.50" is possible across the Basin and Range including areas such
as Lovelock and Fallon.

* Snow totals above 8000 feet could easily reach 2-4 feet with local
amounts over 5 feet possible. The character of the snow will be
heavy and wet.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:18 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
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