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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:24 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The NWS is pretty bullish on the next series of storms. Thanksgiving could be good.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:04 pm 
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Dave's Run
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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:21 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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ocboarder wrote:
I choose [not] to believe

Can't say that I blame you but at least now it's in the day 4 and 5 window. I've got my fingers crossed.


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:55 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I think the 0z came in even wetter. Just waiting for some of the maps to be available.


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:37 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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SurfnSnowboard wrote:
I think the 0z came in even wetter. Just waiting for some of the maps to be available.


The GFS sure didnt, It has storms skirting to N CA.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:00 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Did you look at the total precipitation over the next 7 days? I could swear the GFS has over 4" for the central Sierra.

0z ecmwf snowfall:

Image


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:14 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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The 00Z GFS looked drier to me, but these were just issued from the WPC and both look good.

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:01 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Here's the 08z 5 day which looks very promising

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:36 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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SnS I have to hold my desktop away from my eyes about 2 feet to take in your images. :D

NWS remains optimistic, they raised the forecast where I am in the Bay Area to over half an inch for the Wed. storm now. They also raised the snow level to 9000 ft though.

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:59 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Cheapski how old is your monitor? My posted images are usually less than 700x800 pixels so not exactly huge.

Anyway the CNRFC is on board with the wetter forecast and now has about 4" for the Mammoth area.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:11 pm 
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Center Bowl
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If this verifies, it sounds like it will make for a nice base layer on the Mountain.


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:22 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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OT geek

SnS my monitor is 1680 x 1050 res. 800 vertical is a little uncomfortable.

New 7 day hot off the press. Tahoe looks to get slammed.

Image

(Breaking it down) it looks like the next 3 days are the bulk of it.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:43 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Not the next 3 days, just day 3!

Image

I certainly wouldn't assume that you can take that one day qpf and multiply by 10" to get an approximate snowfall. Duration is critical and that much precipitation in a single day doesn't necessarily translate into a huge amount of snow.

I still think 2ft is reasonable and maybe we'll get lucky and it'll add up to significantly more by next weekend.


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:46 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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If you add up the snow amounts in the NWS forecast for Main Lodge you get 11-21".


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 Post subject: Re: November Storms
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:00 pm 
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Dave's Run
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x3 for my birthday, who's with me? 8-)

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