Afternoon disco from LOX
.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)
Model guidance begins to diverge rapidly Saturday with nearly
completely different solns heading into the New Year and thus very
low confidence with the forecast from Sunday on. The difference
maker between the GFS (dry) and EURO (wet) is how each handles a
trough of low pressure currently located over eastern Asia. The
GFS is quicker with the energy, pushing it through the Pacific
Northwest as an inside slider Saturday with a ridge of high
pressure aloft trying to reassert itself across the region early
next week. Meanwhile, the EURO is slower and more amplified with
the energy, which gradually deepens as it pushes into the West
Coast by early the week. GFS and EURO ensemble members do not
provide much in the way of additional guidance beyond suggesting
that rain is a possibilty sometime late Sunday through early next
week. However, WPC seems to be trending towards the wetter EURO.
The latest GFS solutions would pretty much bring a status
quo for what we have been experiencing in the last week through
early next week.
While the EURO solutions (last two) would bring
the first widespread significant rain and mountain snow of the
winter along with gusty winds to Southwest California.The current forecast attempts to split the difference between the
large range of possibilities with a cooling trend (but not nearly
as cool as the EURO) through the period with increasing clouds
across the region. Low end mentionable rain was added for typical
areas north of Point Conception as well. This situation will be
closely monitored given ongoing holiday festivities as well as
recent burn scars across the area.
Quote:
The difference maker between the GFS (dry) and EURO (wet) is how each handles a
trough of low pressure currently located over eastern Asia.
Lets track it! Which one is it?
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