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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:27 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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We know it wont possibly rain on NY Day, because of the Parade. Or maybe just before or just after.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:53 pm 
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Hemlock Ridge
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Spirit Tree wrote:
snowhottie wrote:
2NAKLLR wrote:
Its up to us in this thread to find interesting things to talk about.


How about them Panthers!


How about those graph paper lines on the backside of wrapping paper...


HAHA, my wife and I were discussing how great those graph lines are, but somehow i still managed to wrap like crap

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:48 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Afternoon disco from LOX

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

Model guidance begins to diverge rapidly Saturday with nearly
completely different solns heading into the New Year and thus very
low confidence with the forecast from Sunday on. The difference
maker between the GFS (dry) and EURO (wet) is how each handles a
trough of low pressure currently located over eastern Asia. The
GFS is quicker with the energy, pushing it through the Pacific
Northwest as an inside slider Saturday with a ridge of high
pressure aloft trying to reassert itself across the region early
next week. Meanwhile, the EURO is slower and more amplified with
the energy, which gradually deepens as it pushes into the West
Coast by early the week. GFS and EURO ensemble members do not
provide much in the way of additional guidance beyond suggesting
that rain is a possibilty sometime late Sunday through early next
week. However, WPC seems to be trending towards the wetter EURO.

The latest GFS solutions would pretty much bring a status
quo for what we have been experiencing in the last week through
early next week. While the EURO solutions (last two) would bring
the first widespread significant rain and mountain snow of the
winter along with gusty winds to Southwest California.


The current forecast attempts to split the difference between the
large range of possibilities with a cooling trend (but not nearly
as cool as the EURO) through the period with increasing clouds
across the region. Low end mentionable rain was added for typical
areas north of Point Conception as well. This situation will be
closely monitored given ongoing holiday festivities as well as
recent burn scars across the area.

Quote:
The difference maker between the GFS (dry) and EURO (wet) is how each handles a
trough of low pressure currently located over eastern Asia.


Lets track it! Which one is it?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:01 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
LoX this AM -
Update...

"Ec is finally in and it shows no rain until late Tuesday or
Wednesday. So expect that rain chc will be removed from New Years
Day."

I'm seeing something 4-7th maybe...keeping fingers crossed. Euro shows around the 4th and GFS just shows lots of precip water offshore..but no precip yet for heRe.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:47 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Well my rels in the midwest that say "it never snows anymore and when it does it doesnt last a day. I miss those big white piles," might be tired of warming the car @5 and shovelling morning noon n night. At least its a good icefish season...


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:46 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Why does the 252 hour forecast always look so promising? Bulk coming in on the 6th..supposedly
Image

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:53 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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The 00Z GFS is now wet from Jan. 3 onwards. :o

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:49 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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SurfnSnowboard wrote:
For San Diego, yes, this year is significantly worse than any of the last 5 years for the Oct-Dec time frame.

From Monterey:

Will finally note, as exceedingly unlikely we will see any
measurable precip the remaining few days of the month, that this
will go down in the record books as one of our driest ever
Decembers.
For Downtown San Francisco for example, the 0.15
inches of rain received would rank it the 4th driest month of
December since 1849, 168 years ago. Only in the Decembers of 2011,
1989 and 1876 was the rainfall total lower. The average rainfall
by contrast is 4.19 inches.

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:39 am 
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Dave's Run
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Okay, who Jinxed December?

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:48 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Good riddance.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:52 am 
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Climax
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Location: Manzanita Mesa
They be losing it at SGX

Quote:
The EC is super speedy bringing the trough inland as an open wave with precip over SoCal as early as Saturday,
while the GFS digs a closed low way off the coast and doesn't move the low and precip this way until early next week.
Both of these solutions will probably change with every run anyway, so the only thing I'm confident in is that one or both of them
eventually crushing our dreams of any precipitation...again
.


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 12:31 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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^^ Someone's imbibed early of the NYE party punch.

OT: this Euro link doesnt work anymore, anyone have another?
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:47 pm 
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Broadway
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ECMWF Model Forecasts http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/


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 Post subject: Re: SoCal December Flip-Flopping Stormzzz
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:37 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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MtnViper wrote:
ECMWF Model Forecasts http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/


Image

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