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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:21 am 
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Dragon's Back
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12 z is very wet day 10 now... I have the 00Z EU and it has an inch of water 10 days out and the New Years Storm is gone. Next EU run just coming in now. At least the trend is to go wet. WG just sent me a message saying big change's mid month.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:07 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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New EU is dry thru day 10 now...

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard Sez - http://www.mammothweather.com

The new 12/27/17 12Z GFS is now singing the same tune of a pattern change the end of week 2. (The Weekend of January 7th into Mid Month)

This is the best MJO signal I have seen this year.



Keep your fingers crossed….:-)

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:45 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Hopefully the 00Z run is consistent with this.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:27 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The 0z ecmwf is dry through Jan 7th. Maybe it's waiting for the January Stoemssss thread before committing.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:28 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
06Z GFS is on board...turning to two feet
Not going to post the 300 something hour out forecast, this is futuristic enough
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Having way too much fun with this....
4.16" QPF for the dark red little west of Inyo
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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:43 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The long range forecast on wxmaps.org shows maybe 1.5" through the 13th.

Pattern change please.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:20 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Good news from Howard - http://www.mammothweather.com

As advertised in past discussions, there is a very good chance that a trend of strengthening tropical forcing over the Indian Ocean (VIA-MJO) expected over the next several days will set into motion a change in the mid latitude hemispheric pattern. This change will bring precipitation back into the west coast and California as early as next Wednesday, but more likely the following week. This change will allow the big Eastern Trough or a portion of it to move out over the Atlantic, thereby opening up the wave length and weakening our west coast ridge. This would allow stormy weather to return to California.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:46 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Yeah - looks like it's shifting to warm and wet in a week+. Let's hope not too warm. The kid reported from Bridger Bowl that he skied his deepest snow ever on Christmas Day - had trouble breathing.... but, ya know it's cold there so it couldn't have been any fun :evil:


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:38 am 
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Dave's Run
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I'm waiting for someone to start a Jan. thread....

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:59 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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7 day qpf backed off AGAIN


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:11 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
That initial cutoff is giving fits. It has a front pushing behind it but its own track is unverifiable day to day.
Roll dem bonez.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:33 pm 
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Nothing but clouds heading our way but at least that's a change.


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