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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Zach trying to carve out his own social media profile there.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:26 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I think props should go to the CPC for seeing something so far out around the 20th.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:18 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
My forecast precip. went from .02 to .26 overnight. I guess NWS is feeling confident.

It returned to .08". :|

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:46 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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While we've been focused on the possibility of snow this week I don't think the extreme fire danger should be ignored:

.FIRE WEATHER...

A particularly dangerous fire weather situation is setting up for
Southern Mono County. High winds are expected late Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday morning. While these winds will occur across most
of the area, the biggest concern is over Southern Mono County.
Little rainfall has occurred so far this winter and fuels remain
very dry, in contrast to the heavy rains received north of Highway
50 in November.

The strongest winds are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning ahead of the cold front. There is also downslope potential
with it, and very dry air ahead of the front. At this point we are
looking at peak gusts up to 70 mph and the biggest threat will be
along the 395 corridor south of Mono Lake. In addition, with the
very dry air ahead of it, RH will likely remain 10 to 20% in some
areas into Wednesday morning.

The cold front moves through Wednesday morning with some snow near
the Sierra Crest, but little spilling over to the east. While RH
will briefly come up, subsidence on the backside will bring very dry
air back into the area with RH possibly dropping into the teens
again Wednesday afternoon after a brief recovery. Winds will switch
to the north and be weaker. However, areas susceptible to north
winds such as the Owens and Chalfant Valleys will see strong winds
continue. Gusts with the north winds will be 50-55 mph in these
areas.

Given the strength of the winds, the very dry air, and fuel
susceptibility, we are issuing a Red Flag Warning for Southern
Mono County. This is a particularly dangerous situation given the
strength of the winds and the low humidity with very rapid fire
spread possible
(like the Round Fire in 2015).


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:17 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard Sez-

The long stretch of very warm air aloft to the degree it has been, is over for the foreseeable future. We have enough retrogression in the west coast ridge to allow shots of cold to periodically bring cooling to our region. Of significance, is a short wave in the form of a NW slider coming south Tuesday night and Wednesday. Although this is still a relatively dry pattern, we could get 3 to 6 inches of cold dry powder from it by Thursday AM. Beyond that time frame, both EC and GFS has the Arctic opening up for the Midwest and East with very cold Arctic Air invading the CONUS.

The narrow but highly amped upper ridge is forecasted to be at 130W which keeps us cool but dry.

If we believe the ECMWF, serious retrogression develops week two as we head through the Yule Season as a serious cold and wet storm is at hand for year end…… Looking at the MJO RIMM phase space with some incursions by some of the models to phase space 8 and then 1, I’d give it a 60% chance at this time, considering that the GFS has nothing but ridge at 500MB week two forecast outlook.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:39 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Reno this Pm (not Zack)
Tidbits..
Anyone with travel plans Wednesday
morning should try to leave early and allow for extra time to
reach their destinations or postpone travel until later in the
morning after the front has passed. Latest estimates of the cold
frontal timing is as follows:

* Susanville-lassen: midnight to 3am Wednesday
* lake tahoe: 2am to 10am Wednesday
* Reno-carson: 5am to 8am Wednesday
* Mammoth lakes: 2pm to 5pm Wednesday

Several inches of snow are expected in the Sierra with up to 8-12
inches above 7000 feet at pass level. Snow amounts south of Highway 50 will be
much less, with only a dusting up to 3 inches of snow possible.
Could see up to a few inches of snow around Mammoth.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:55 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Yup, a dusting in town this morning and dust on hard pack on the hill with lots of wind. Maybe more lifts will open later today as this fast-moving little storm passes.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:54 am 
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Dave's Run
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What's all that white stuff? :)

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:06 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
^ That's the only White Christmas we're going to get! :P

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:10 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The NWS said the snow will be short lived, but could be intense for short periods.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:50 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
^ Yes, the snowfall has already picked up. Maybe this fast-moving storm will be a bit of an over-achiever on this last day of Autumn! :)

Image

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:19 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Woot!


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:31 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It's just about over and there's nothing behind it so it should clear out pretty fast.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:47 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
1:30 p.m. Blue sky in town and clearing on the hill. MMSA reports 2-3" and we got about 1-2" in our 'hood.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:26 pm 
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Center Bowl
Center Bowl

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:17 am
Posts: 302
Location: Brighton
Nice driveway report. Stick to it.


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