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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:31 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Location: Orange County, CA
Models really flipping and flopping eh?

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:39 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From Opensnow.com for Mammoth

Update

We are still in a dry period for another week. Beyond a week it is hard to have much confidence in the forecast models. The pattern changes they have been showing for next week and the week after are not ideal for snow to return, but they offer a small chance.

Remainder of This Week:

Sunny weather pattern continues. High temperatures will be in the low 50's during the day and overnight lows in the 20's. The inversions are keeping it warmer at the top than the bottom at night.

The Weekend:

This weekend storms should return to the Pacific NW which may cool upper mountain highs into the 40's and bring a little wind. Still expecting mostly sunny skies through the weekend.

The new weather pattern may also mix up the air a bit and allow for colder temperatures below freezing again on the upper mountain for snowmaking.

Next Week:

By the middle of next week high pressure may shift far enough away to allow colder air and the possibility of light snowfall.

We are watching for the possibility of system diving down from the North next Thursday. There is a better chance for colder air than snow, especially on the latest model runs, but we will keep watching to see if we can get some light snow out of it.

Christmas Week:

Heading towards Christmas high pressure may try to build back in but further North and West near Alaska. That could possibly allow storms to break underneath into CA near or just after Christmas. Again, the chances are slim, but it is possible in that pattern setup.

We are hoping for a full pattern change to a wide open storm door in January.

BA

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Last edited by CyberK on Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:03 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Location: Orange County, CA
I wonder if this has something to do with the thread title

What happened to Stormzzzz

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:33 am 
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Dave's Run
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ocboarder wrote:
I wonder if this has something to do with the thread title

What happened to Stormzzzz


They are zzzzing (and doing flip flops)


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:03 pm 
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Stump Alley
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LOL BA does not know anything really about Mammoth, there snotel forecast system for Mammoth is a joke...


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:24 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Fri. 12/15/17 For those wondering about the smoke moving in above the summit...the wind may have shifted to a SW wind which may be bringing the smoke in from the Thomas Fire in Ventura. This fire is now at 252,500 acres and only 35% contained. A young firefighter lost his life on this fire yesterday...Cory Iverson...please keep his family, friends and coworkers in your prayers. :(

http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incident ... Index/1922

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:55 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
12/15/17 4:15 p.m. WOW...who else got a look at those lenticulars over Mammoth? Only bringing in a slight chance of snow, but still beautiful despite the smokey sky!

Image

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:11 pm 
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Stump Alley
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Nasty Smoke, watched it move in while skiing and then I said piss on smoke skiing and went home.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:28 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
We got our 20%. Looks like clouds, flat light and wind on the hill. Barely a dusting in town. Dust on crust. I think the hospital may be busy this weekend. Enjoy the Night of Lights everyone!

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:45 pm 
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Stump Alley
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Flat light but the groomers for the most part had soft snow. Did not try going off the groomers in that nasty fog out. Fun morning and I never waited in a line.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:20 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The wind is crazy in the Bay Area, howzit up in the mountains?

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:37 pm 
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It's snowing. Very soft light snow drifting down. Mostly just a nuisance causing limited visibility from mid-mountain up.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:25 pm 
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Dave's Run
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With that cold air squeezing out every drop of moisture this could be a nice fluffy present.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:54 am 
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Dave's Run
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My forecast precip. went from .02 to .26 overnight. I guess NWS is feeling confident.

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:04 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Correct you are^^^better than lumps of coal.
Hanford this AM
"There is not a significant amount of moisture expected with this system but it
will provide a chance for some generally light precipitation
across most of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Accumulating snow will mainly occur above 6000 ft and amounts will
be small, just a few inches forecast for the highest elevations of
the Sierra. "
Reno's bit....
"A high wind watch has been issued for Sierra and western
Nevada for Tuesday night. Wind gusts at the surface could reach 50
to 60 mph with wind prone areas potentially exceeding 75 mph, and
gusts of gusts of 120 mph or more along the Sierra crest. The
duration of strong winds is expected to be relatively short since
the cold front is moving very quickly through the area, with most
intense winds occurring ahead of the front. The peak winds are
currently projected to be overnight which will make the wind gusts
more erratic, especially in the lower elevations, going from near
calm conditions to very intense wind gusts in a matter of
seconds."
"How much snowfall we will see,
small changes in the trajectory can affect this balance so there
is still uncertainty in the magnitude of the wind and snowfall.
But, considering the intensity of the cold front, if it was ME, I
would be preparing for both a period of high winds and some
accumulation of snow". -Zach

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