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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:33 am 
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Stump Alley
Stump Alley

Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:37 am
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NE winds striping the top more... I would avoid the top when it opens.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:17 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Sierra Lady wrote:
Dang...look at the summit cam this morning. 85+ mph gusts and -1.45 degrees. Hope the wind dies down and the top pops later today for all our visitors! It's a balmy 11 in our 'hood this morning. Leaving for a road trip to AZ to visit the family. Merry Christmas to all!


Have a safe drive and a Merry Christmas SL


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:50 am 
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Dave's Run
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This just came to me. Too funny -

Image

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:20 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Graybird with wind at times today. Seemed like it really wanted to do...something.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:47 am 
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Dave's Run
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x post from SoCal thread

Interesting things. For the last few days the GFS has really been wanting to retrograde the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge at the beginning of Jan. to let the storm track in.
http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_thck.shtml

Looks like the Euro is too.

Image

Edit: as early as the New Year?

Image

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:33 pm 
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Stump Alley
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Weather Guy says no on the EU New Years storm when I asked this am....

Here are some fun colors to look at:
Image


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 1:36 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I wouldn't be surprised if that chart is mainly based on climatology.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:03 pm 
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Stump Alley
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No that is the models QPF forecast... Just asked WG


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:44 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Afternoon disco from SF:

Things become a little more disjointed by Sunday. The ecmwf model,
which specializes in medium range forecasting, has trended much
wetter for two consecutive forecast cycles. The 12z ecmwf brings
some rain as early as Sunday afternoon with a main shortwave
dropping down on New Years Day. On the flip side the gfs remains
totally dry while the gem shows rain, but mainly light and not
until later next week. As a compromise the forecast was updated to
mainly bring some rain chances into the forecast later Sunday
into Monday. The key will be to watch the trend over the next 24
hours or so as the models try to assimilate all the data. Concern
here being on potential high impacts for New Years Eve festivities
and holiday travelers. For what its worth the ecmwf solution
would also bring significant snow to the Sierra and drag a front
down towards southern California, so impacts could be widespread
should the ecmwf solution come close to verifying.
As always stay
tuned...

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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:45 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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mammothsnowman wrote:
No that is the models QPF forecast... Just asked WG

Yes but the model likely relies heavily on climatology that far out.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:15 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Murphy may just be perverse enough to rain on the parade after the driest spell in 87 years....


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:28 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Oo that would hurt the image.


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:12 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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12z ECMWF has snow starting late on NYE for Mammoth. Certainly would be a nice refresh after the holidays.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:23 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Tweet from Ryan Maue @RyanMaue earlier tonight:

Watching a storm system (cut-off low) with a weak atmospheric river Sunday-Monday for California. Could be widespread statewide heavy rain and mountain snow. That'd be a great way to start 2018!


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 Post subject: Re: December Weather
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:50 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Reno this AM... It's 50/50. Checked 06Z GFS and dry as a bone.
"Long term...
little to no change to the current extended forecast this morning.
The GFS continues to be dry for the next 10 days. The ec did not
come in tonight, but its 12z run was quite wet from Sunday night
Onward. With no clear favored solutions in the ensembles (they are
spaghetti, see below), left the forecast overall unchanged due to
very low confidence. X "
X continues to give the definition of "spaghetti".....

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