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December Weather
http://easternsierraforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=19245
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Author:  Spirit Tree [ Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Reno this AM... It's 50/50. Checked 06Z GFS and dry as a bone.
"Long term...
little to no change to the current extended forecast this morning.
The GFS continues to be dry for the next 10 days. The ec did not
come in tonight, but its 12z run was quite wet from Sunday night
Onward. With no clear favored solutions in the ensembles (they are
spaghetti, see below), left the forecast overall unchanged due to
very low confidence. X "
X continues to give the definition of "spaghetti".....

Author:  TheSnowman [ Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

12 z is very wet day 10 now... I have the 00Z EU and it has an inch of water 10 days out and the New Years Storm is gone. Next EU run just coming in now. At least the trend is to go wet. WG just sent me a message saying big change's mid month.

Author:  TheSnowman [ Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

New EU is dry thru day 10 now...

Author:  CyberK [ Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Howard Sez - http://www.mammothweather.com

The new 12/27/17 12Z GFS is now singing the same tune of a pattern change the end of week 2. (The Weekend of January 7th into Mid Month)

This is the best MJO signal I have seen this year.



Keep your fingers crossed….:-)

Author:  snowhottie [ Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Hopefully the 00Z run is consistent with this.

Image

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

The 0z ecmwf is dry through Jan 7th. Maybe it's waiting for the January Stoemssss thread before committing.

Author:  Spirit Tree [ Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

06Z GFS is on board...turning to two feet
Not going to post the 300 something hour out forecast, this is futuristic enough
Image
Image
Having way too much fun with this....
4.16" QPF for the dark red little west of Inyo
Image

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

The long range forecast on wxmaps.org shows maybe 1.5" through the 13th.

Pattern change please.

Author:  CyberK [ Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Good news from Howard - http://www.mammothweather.com

As advertised in past discussions, there is a very good chance that a trend of strengthening tropical forcing over the Indian Ocean (VIA-MJO) expected over the next several days will set into motion a change in the mid latitude hemispheric pattern. This change will bring precipitation back into the west coast and California as early as next Wednesday, but more likely the following week. This change will allow the big Eastern Trough or a portion of it to move out over the Atlantic, thereby opening up the wave length and weakening our west coast ridge. This would allow stormy weather to return to California.

Author:  oldskier [ Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Yeah - looks like it's shifting to warm and wet in a week+. Let's hope not too warm. The kid reported from Bridger Bowl that he skied his deepest snow ever on Christmas Day - had trouble breathing.... but, ya know it's cold there so it couldn't have been any fun :evil:

Author:  snowhottie [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

I'm waiting for someone to start a Jan. thread....

Image

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

7 day qpf backed off AGAIN

Author:  2NAKLLR [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

That initial cutoff is giving fits. It has a front pushing behind it but its own track is unverifiable day to day.
Roll dem bonez.

Image

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

Nothing but clouds heading our way but at least that's a change.

Author:  bombtripper [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: December Weather

GFS wins for the end of december, but hmm.. has struggled with the first week of jan.

Quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if that chart is mainly based on climatology.

EPS extended (ensemble prediction system, 51 members control run) uses mainly the MJO correlation. Maps (w MSLP and precip) to 768hrs (32days) up to 46days, released every Monday and Thursday. I've seen this model hit it on the nail for one February as it correctly predicted the entire month (for mammoth) to be mostly dry. Would I trust it every time, hell NO. Got to know when it can be trusted. The seasonal uses stuff like ENSO.

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