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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:33 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The 0z blobs at the end of the month are hurting my eyes....


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:53 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I was trying to make a gif of the 15 blobby frames but my Photochop isnt cooperating. It looks spectacular after the 19th.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:56 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From NWS Reno=

The medium range guidance has trended a bit faster with the arrival
of this storm, which will be driven by a powerful Pacific jet
stream. Winds could increase as soon as Wednesday night/early
Thursday with a period of strong south winds in far western NV,
followed by a broader areas of potentially strong winds on
Thursday ahead of the cold front. While it is too soon to
determine whether downslope enhancement will occur, the
pressure/thermal gradient and mid-upper level wind profiles on
their own could support 45+ mph gusts in lower elevations, with
100+ mph Sierra ridge gusts.

As for precipitation, the bulk of the moisture appears more likely
to occur during the daytime and evening hours on Thursday. The
faster timing of the cold front passage could push snow levels
down to some western NV valleys by the Thursday evening commute,
with temperatures dropping below freezing at all elevations
Thursday night. Snowfall potential remains a wild card, depending
on the amount of moisture drawn in by this storm, and whether the
heaviest precip falls in the warm or cold sector. Early snowfall
projections of a foot or more in the Sierra above 7000 feet, with
several inches down to 5500 feet, seem reasonable. Lighter snow
amounts capable of producing travel impacts are possible Thursday
evening and overnight in the western Nevada foothills and even
down to some valley floors.

Next Friday looks to be chilly with brisk west to northwest winds
and isolated-scattered light snow showers. Medium range guidance
hints as a possible secondary shortwave passage across northeast CA,
which could produce some localized heavier snow shower bands Friday
afternoon/early evening. The cold air mass over the warmer lake
water could also support enhanced snow shower bands downwind of
larger lakes.

Beyond Friday, medium range guidance/ensembles diverge with the
storm track/timing, but it appears that an overall unsettled pattern
with fast moving weather systems could continue further into late
January.
Temperatures are unlikely to return to the warm values
expected through Monday. MJD

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:37 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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x post Major pattern change ahead aye aye. As regular as the trains.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:45 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard sez...

Confidence continues to increase for a significant snowstorm to reach Mammoth by Thursday morning with strongest portion Thursday night into Friday AM. This system has an AR connection that is regarded as light to moderate and coincides with a jet stream that supports the system dynamically. Although this system has some very cold air with it, the storm will not meet the platinum powder criteria of a foot of snow at a snow to water ration of 15:1. The snow level will begin at an elevation of about 7000 feet but will crash to the Mono County valley floor Friday. the Freezing Level Friday afternoon will be 2300 feet! However, by then, only snow showers will be occurring… Looks like a storm capable of 18+ inches by Friday night on Mammoth Mountain. Amounts should be between 6 to 10 inches in town.



The next following weekend looks unsettled with a chance of snow showers. The following storm for the Monday and Tuesday the 22nd and 23rd the following week is dubious at this time due to model difference….

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:44 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
208 PM PST Mon Jan 15 2018

The stronger and colder storm arrives Thursday and continues
through Friday with strong winds, rain, and snow. Strong gusty winds
will develop Thursday with gusts above 50 mph possible in lower
elevations, while Sierra ridge gusts could exceed 100 mph. Rain
and high elevation snow begin on Thursday. Snow levels will begin
around 7000 feet, then drop to all valley floors Thursday night
through Friday.

Heavy snowfall and poor visibility are likely for travel and
outdoor activity, especially in the Sierra. Snowfall totals may
exceed 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet, with several inches up to 1
foot possible for valleys near the Sierra and Lake Tahoe, and in
far western Nevada down to near 5500 feet. For lower elevations of
eastern California and western Nevada, accumulating snow is
possible Thursday night and Friday.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:30 am 
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Dave's Run
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All good news

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:29 am 
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Center Bowl
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Location: Hip deep in blower pow in my head
Hopefully it moves just a little farther south. Fingers crossed.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:24 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Both storms look far enough south to hit the central Sierra.

Image

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