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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 1:40 pm 
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Dave's Run
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This is what happens when no one jinxed it. Overachieve!!

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:38 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Nice looking qpf from the CNRFC

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:41 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Hanford

Models coming into better consensus on a strong storm system
affecting central CA on Monday and Tuesday. The system will
consist of two upper level lows. The first a strong sub tropical
low with tropical moisture will begin to open up and lift north
into the region Monday. Looks like an Atmospheric River event.
South winds will be very gusty Monday afternoon and evening
especially in the south valley near the Grapevine and along the
west side along I5. The second part of the storm system will be
a cold core upper low center dropping out of the Gulf of AK. The
low moves off the CA coast Monday night and into central CA
Tuesday. The system may contain high amount of precipitable water
as subtropical moisture wraps around into system as it approaches
the west coast. Strong PVA and impressive 250 mb jet will provide
the dynamics needed for the potential for thunderstorms and
locally heavy convective rainfall. Snow levels will start out
around 7k feet Monday morning and will rise to around 9k feet by
monday evening. As the cold core moves across the area Tuesday,
snow levels will rapidly drop to around 5500 feet by Tuesday
afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will occur with the frontal
band on Monday. However locally heavy showers and thunderstorms
are possible on Tuesday as well.
Flash flooding is a possibility
near burn scars of this seasons wildfires. We will continue to
focus on this threat near the Detwiler and Pier fires. We will
also consider Winter hazard statements for potentially heavy snow
in the high county above 8k feet in the Sierra for Monday and
Tuesday. Amounts are still uncertain and we will hold off for now.
However, if you are traveling to the Sierra early next week,
please monitor the weather reports for updates as know that
conditions can and will change very rapidly on Monday and Tuesday.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:41 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Location: Hell awaits...
Hanford wrote:
The system will consist of two upper level lows. The first a strong sub tropical
low with tropical moisture will begin to open up and lift north
into the region Monday. Looks like an Atmospheric River event.


I would argue the term Atmospheric River is inappropriately used.

BTW, the GFS model has been REALLY playing catch up with Tuesday's event. The European extended model picked it up a long time ago. Not to say it's always right... you'll have to know when it's not bullshitn.

Moist SW flow for orographic lift, with upper level winds nosing in at central coast. 700mb winds, relatively speaking, not bad on Tuesday op hrs.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:18 am 
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Dave's Run
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hanford CA
957 AM PST Sun Jan 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing and drifting snow. Plan on
hazardous winter driving conditions, travel delays and
possible road closures with local whiteout conditions. Total
snow accumulations of up to 2 feet are likely above 7,000 feet
with the potential for as much as 3 feet of new snow along the
Sierra crest by Tuesday evening.


* WHERE...Sierra Nevada from Yosemite National Park to the Kern
County line. Snow levels starting out above 8000 feet and
lowering to 4500 feet to 5500 feet Tuesday afternoon.

* WHEN...From 10 pm PST Monday to 10 pm PST Tuesday.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:36 pm 
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Stump Alley
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I think the QPF on the GFS and EU are to low for Mammoth just like the last storm... guys in Reno mentioned that this morning as well.

LOL the mountain was claiming deep powder today, NOT!


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Marketing will add another 2 feet anyway. :?

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:45 pm 
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Stump Alley
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CyberK wrote:
This is what happens when no one jinxed it. Overachieve!!


There is no Jinx


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:02 pm 
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Dave's Run
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You just jinxed it buy saying there is no jinx. However if you said there was a jinx, therefore the jinx would not have been jinxed. Get it?

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:21 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
mammothsnowman wrote:
I think the QPF on the GFS and EU are to low for Mammoth just like the last storm... guys in Reno mentioned that this morning as well.

LOL the mountain was claiming deep powder today, NOT!

Holding tight to 3' over the crest.
Quote:
Reno WSW for Mono Co. until 7pm Tues.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Total snow accumulations of 1-2 feet above 7500 feet, are expected, with localized amounts up of 3+ feet along the Sierra crest. 4-12 inches are possible between 7000-7500 feet with up to 2 inches down to 6500 feet.

Precipitation type at and below 8000 feet will start as mainly rain Monday then changeover to all snow Monday night into Tuesday.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:24 am 
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Dave's Run
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Rain began around midnight here and its now steady and getting moderate. No wind yet.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:59 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Coming down pretty wet in town and just beginning to stick on roofs and side of roads at our elevation (7,832'). Socked in and snowing on the hill. Let the storm doors open!

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:26 am 
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Stump Alley
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I have a half inch so far.

You can watch my driveway live if you like:
http://www.mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-m ... -web-cams/


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:40 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
mammothsnowman wrote:
I have a half inch so far.

You can watch my driveway live if you like:
http://www.mammothsnowman.com/mammoth-m ... -web-cams/


Still missing the thermometer...maybe the guy across the street can get a big LED read out thermo.
Do appreciate the camera 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:12 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It's pretty warm, just as forecast. Sitting at 33° at Main.

Not sure what changed but the qpf dropped off quite a bit for Mammoth.

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