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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:33 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The 0z blobs at the end of the month are hurting my eyes....


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:53 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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I was trying to make a gif of the 15 blobby frames but my Photochop isnt cooperating. It looks spectacular after the 19th.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:56 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From NWS Reno=

The medium range guidance has trended a bit faster with the arrival
of this storm, which will be driven by a powerful Pacific jet
stream. Winds could increase as soon as Wednesday night/early
Thursday with a period of strong south winds in far western NV,
followed by a broader areas of potentially strong winds on
Thursday ahead of the cold front. While it is too soon to
determine whether downslope enhancement will occur, the
pressure/thermal gradient and mid-upper level wind profiles on
their own could support 45+ mph gusts in lower elevations, with
100+ mph Sierra ridge gusts.

As for precipitation, the bulk of the moisture appears more likely
to occur during the daytime and evening hours on Thursday. The
faster timing of the cold front passage could push snow levels
down to some western NV valleys by the Thursday evening commute,
with temperatures dropping below freezing at all elevations
Thursday night. Snowfall potential remains a wild card, depending
on the amount of moisture drawn in by this storm, and whether the
heaviest precip falls in the warm or cold sector. Early snowfall
projections of a foot or more in the Sierra above 7000 feet, with
several inches down to 5500 feet, seem reasonable. Lighter snow
amounts capable of producing travel impacts are possible Thursday
evening and overnight in the western Nevada foothills and even
down to some valley floors.

Next Friday looks to be chilly with brisk west to northwest winds
and isolated-scattered light snow showers. Medium range guidance
hints as a possible secondary shortwave passage across northeast CA,
which could produce some localized heavier snow shower bands Friday
afternoon/early evening. The cold air mass over the warmer lake
water could also support enhanced snow shower bands downwind of
larger lakes.

Beyond Friday, medium range guidance/ensembles diverge with the
storm track/timing, but it appears that an overall unsettled pattern
with fast moving weather systems could continue further into late
January.
Temperatures are unlikely to return to the warm values
expected through Monday. MJD

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:37 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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x post Major pattern change ahead aye aye. As regular as the trains.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:45 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard sez...

Confidence continues to increase for a significant snowstorm to reach Mammoth by Thursday morning with strongest portion Thursday night into Friday AM. This system has an AR connection that is regarded as light to moderate and coincides with a jet stream that supports the system dynamically. Although this system has some very cold air with it, the storm will not meet the platinum powder criteria of a foot of snow at a snow to water ration of 15:1. The snow level will begin at an elevation of about 7000 feet but will crash to the Mono County valley floor Friday. the Freezing Level Friday afternoon will be 2300 feet! However, by then, only snow showers will be occurring… Looks like a storm capable of 18+ inches by Friday night on Mammoth Mountain. Amounts should be between 6 to 10 inches in town.



The next following weekend looks unsettled with a chance of snow showers. The following storm for the Monday and Tuesday the 22nd and 23rd the following week is dubious at this time due to model difference….

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:44 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
208 PM PST Mon Jan 15 2018

The stronger and colder storm arrives Thursday and continues
through Friday with strong winds, rain, and snow. Strong gusty winds
will develop Thursday with gusts above 50 mph possible in lower
elevations, while Sierra ridge gusts could exceed 100 mph. Rain
and high elevation snow begin on Thursday. Snow levels will begin
around 7000 feet, then drop to all valley floors Thursday night
through Friday.

Heavy snowfall and poor visibility are likely for travel and
outdoor activity, especially in the Sierra. Snowfall totals may
exceed 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet, with several inches up to 1
foot possible for valleys near the Sierra and Lake Tahoe, and in
far western Nevada down to near 5500 feet. For lower elevations of
eastern California and western Nevada, accumulating snow is
possible Thursday night and Friday.

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:30 am 
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Dave's Run
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All good news

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:29 am 
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Center Bowl
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Location: Hip deep in blower pow in my head
Hopefully it moves just a little farther south. Fingers crossed.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:24 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Both storms look far enough south to hit the central Sierra.

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:23 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Location: Hell awaits...
RENO OFFICE wrote:
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service RENO NV
208 PM PST Mon Jan 15 2018

^Reno’s discussion (in this statement) is primarily for the Tahoe region.

As I see it the one high probability for Mammoth is extremely strong winds. If they can measure the snowfall without the wind blowing it to Nevada expect 4-6” at sesame. Moisture is heading down the wrong way for a good dump.

Add insult the Monday storm (21st) looks like weak to nada. Someone musta pressed the reset button. Plenty of time for models (EC’s deterministic and ensemble) to rethink things but.…it's all about the PNW.

Quote:
Both storms look far enough south to hit the central Sierra.

Pray....


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:43 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Mammoth needs the snow but hopefully it doesn't screw up the Olympic qualifiers at the Mammoth GP


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:06 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Today's qpf charts match what BT said with almost nothing after this first storm.

Maybe a foot by Saturday if things work out well and then almost nothing.

Pray for a pattern change.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:22 pm 
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Center Bowl
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SurfnSnowboard wrote:
Today's qpf charts match what BT said with almost nothing after this first storm.

Maybe a foot by Saturday if things work out well and then almost nothing.

Pray for a pattern change.


Groan!
I thought this was going to be the start of a pattern change, with winter hitting full stride in Feb and March.
I hope we don't go into February still hoping for a pattern change. It's starting to get pretty late in the game.


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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:40 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Location: Orange County, CA
It's just going to be one of those years...

March, you're our only hope

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 Post subject: Re: Jonesing for January storms
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:12 pm 
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Dave's Run
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NWS Hanford-

A pattern change commences tomorrow as an upper trough drops in
from the northeast Pacific. The models have slowed things down a
bit with precipitation likely holding off until Thursday evening.
The front moves through Friday morning with a cold air mass and
lingering showers through the day. Rainfall in the San Joaquin
Valley is expected to mainly be light with around a tenth of an
inch, but some areas could see upwards of one quarter of an inch.
The southern Sierra could see one half to one inch with highest
amounts expected from Yosemite to Kings Canyon NP. The bulk of the
snowfall will occur above 5000 feet where 4-8 inches are forecast,
and locally up to 12 inches around high elevations in Yosemite
NP. Snow levels will lower to around 3500 feet Friday with 1-3
inches possible. Some brief heavier showers could result in snow
falling as low as 2500 feet in some areas, but little more than
a dusting is likely there. Snow may begin to fall on the major
passes in Kern County by Friday morning as well. Still some
uncertainty on timing of the cold air reaching Kern County, so
have held off on any Winter Weather headlines for now. Social
media messaging has been highlighting this potential. A strong
upper jet will bring windy conditions over the mountains and a
strengthening pressure gradient will produce breezy conditions in
the Valley and gusty winds in the desert. A few lingering mountain
showers are possible into Saturday, but mostly dry conditions are
expected. A weaker system is expected Sunday night and Monday.
<end>

Seems the closer we get, the snowfall amounts keep getting smaller.

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