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Jonesing for January storms
http://easternsierraforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=19250
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Author:  Sierra Lady [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  Jonesing for January storms

Here you go cheapski.

Looking forward to providing more driveway reports in the near future. ;) :P

Author:  bretfarewell [ Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

C’mon Mother Nature, don’t let us down this month!!

Author:  snowhottie [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

NWS now has a quarter of an inch of warm rain for me on Wed. Lets see if it happens.


Noooooo

Given the rather complex synoptic pattern that will be developing
over the Eastern Pacific this week, it`s rather surprising that
the longer range models agree rather well in the extended forecast
period. The general idea is for dry weather next weekend as
shortwave ridging develops over California, followed by more rain
by Tuesday of next week. However, this wet pattern may not last
much beyond the middle of next week according to the GFS. Both the
12Z and 00Z GFS ensemble mean show a blocking ridge redeveloping
along the West Coast by mid January.

Author:  CyberK [ Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

From NWS Reno

The first wave moves northeast from northern California into
southern Oregon late Wednesday into early Thursday. The northern
track of this wave will keep our area moderately warm with snow
levels above 7500 feet over northeast California and the northern
Sierra...and above 8000 feet in Mono County. The trajectory of
the wave is not conducive to producing large amounts of precipitation
in the Sierra and a more southerly component early on to the mid
level winds should limit any spill over until early Thursday. The
fast moving nature of the wave will help keep precipitation
amounts tamped down as well. Still...through late Thursday we
could see upwards of three-quarters of an inch of liquid
precipitation in the high Sierra with up to 6 inches of snow at
the highest elevations.


Evening update -

The first storm for Wednesday has a decent moisture tap from the
subtropics with warm southerly flow. The dynamics and wind
orientation, however, are not favorable for considerable
precipitation in the Sierra with very light amounts expected in
western Nevada. Along the immediate crest of the Sierra, QPF amounts
are expected to be in the 0.25-0.5" range with the highest amounts
near Tahoe and lesser amounts in southern Mono County.
Snow levels
are expected to fluctuate in the 7500-8500` range with a few inches
of snow accumulating in the higher elevations by Thursday morning.

Model simulations become messy, for lack of a better term, going
into the weekend. Timing and location of best precipitation chances
vary widely in recent simulations. What we can say, is that it looks
likely that we will see another weak to moderate, relatively warm,
storm in the Friday to Saturday time period. -Zach

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

At least the 7 day qpf isn't completely dry.

Image

Author:  snowhottie [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

I was literally just about to post "NWS reduced my precip. to .17" but now they've gone up to a third of an inch for Wed. Its not huge but its an encouraging sign that it increased?

Author:  snowhottie [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

snowhottie wrote:
Noooooo

However, this wet pattern may not last
much beyond the middle of next week according to the GFS. Both the
12Z and 00Z GFS ensemble mean show a blocking ridge redeveloping
along the West Coast by mid January.


This afternoon:
Both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks from the CPC favor wetter than
normal weather suggesting the active pattern could be with us
into the middle of the month at a minimum.


Which, since I am keeping score, the GFS was showing as early as Christmas.

Author:  skibum4ever [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

Please please please let's have a couple of decent storms.

Author:  Sierra Lady [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

When there's no snow in town on New Year's Day...make lemonade! I took a wonderful 1.7 mile power walk down to the Hayden Cabin around noon. Happy New Year forum folks!

Image

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Image

Image

Last night of the New Year's Supermoon!

Image

Author:  SurfnSnowboard [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

Slight improvement in the 7 day qpf.

Image

Author:  snowhottie [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

Image

Starting to draw up that moisture from the south!

Author:  CyberK [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

Hanford sez....

Extended models are advertising a very impressive storm system
moving in on Monday night. We have increased the chance of rain
on Monday night and Tuesday. Of course this far out, timing and
intensity can change at any time.

Author:  snowhottie [ Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

From SF

Convective parameters remain favorable for possible thunderstorms
as well and overnight we saw an impressive number of cloud-to-
cloud and cloud-to-water lightning strikes. Latest image shows
the closest cluster still around 200 miles west of San Francisco.

Author:  playfulcoyote [ Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

[quote="Sierra Lady"]When there's no snow in town on New Year's Day...make lemonade! I took a wonderful 1.7 mile power walk down to the Hayden Cabin around noon. Happy New Year forum folks!


I was up there last week and was actually happy that the weather was so mild. Originally when I planned on spending the week up there I was counting on it dumping a couple of times during the week. As it got closer and closer and I realized we weren't going to get a damn thing I started to make other plans. Fortunately I had left my new mountain bike up there and I bought a pair of used ice skates on ebay. We had guests show up the entire week so that kind of limited my free time but I was still able to get in a number of nice bike rides ( I actually rode by your place earlier in the week, I was on my way back from the visitor center and spotted a very distinctive truck parked outside of a condo complex. I had to do a double take. I also just missed you on New Years day at Hayden Cabin, I was down there about 1 pm.) I took my guests up to Bodie (hadn't been there in 35 years) and to Mono Lake at sunset. Saw the fireworks at the village on New Years Eve and walked home on a beautiful calm moon lit night. I was able to work on the outside of our place (transplanted a couple of small trees, did a little carpentry and painting). I didn't end up using the ice skates (chickened out since I hadn't been in years and I realized my rear doesn't have the same padding that it use to) and I had wanted to go up to Bristle Cone Pine forest but never found the time. All in all though it was a nice relaxing weekend with wind free fall like weather but I've had my fill of lemonade and now I'm ready for the snow.

Author:  2NAKLLR [ Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Jonesing for January storms

snowhottie wrote:
Image

Starting to draw up that moisture from the south!


"Some meteorologists get excited about a big Eastern Pacific cyclone like this..."
--[ABC LA Talking Head] Dallas Raines
But, no. Not him.

I LOLd.

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