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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:35 pm 
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Center Bowl
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Location: Pine Mountain Club, CA
Snow levels appear to be around 9500'-10000' in SoCal right now. I'm hoping there's a little cold air coming in with the bulk of the precipitation.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:50 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
I wish I can post this on here w/o clicking. The mechanics of this is quite fascinating.....
Ya 2NAK it's all coming together. Do unzoom..
http://weather.us/satellite/1258-w-263- ... html#play2

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:57 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Nice illustration.
Image


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:07 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Spirit Tree wrote:
Image

Image

Image

Just for reference down heŘe in the vicinity of "na Ni" it is light rain and a balmy 63.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:31 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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If they can get a slow steady light rain in the burn areas for the start of this storm it might help a little. Once it starts raining hard that cooked soil is going to just shed the water like a duck's feathers. They most definitely will be getting some nasty debris flows out of those canyons and maybe some flash floods if it really dumps like they are predicting. I wish them well.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:33 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
LoX @ 2pm
As the front approaches overnight the air mass will become
increasingly unstable leading to a possibility of thunderstorms.

While the south/southeast flow at lower levels will provide
sufficient upslope orographic enhancement of the rainfall rates
south of pt Conception, the added element of convection on top of
that increases the potential for more widespread flooding concerns
beyond just the immediate burn areas, though those will still be
the primary concern. Rainfall rates locally in excess of an inch
are possible as the front comes in late tonight and early Tuesday.
And while precip rates and coverage as a whole will taper off
behind the front during the morning hours the convective threat
will linger and will maintain a risk of flooding and debris
flows through the afternoon.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:36 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
It's a 58 HerE with .62" in the bucket. My sentiments exactly^^^^
LoX's latest. 9 hours of heavy rain and in the dark to boot.
"Timing of heaviest rainfall into Southwest California later tonight into Tuesday morning. Here are some more specific timings...

SBA County: 10 PM Tonight - 7 AM Tuesday
Ventura County: Midnight Tonight - 9 AM Tuesday
LA County: 2 AM Tuesday - 11 AM Tuesday"

Peak rainfall rates of 0.50-1.00 inch per hour, locally up to 1.5 inches per hour possible near thunderstorms.

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:02 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Spirit Tree wrote:
It's a 58 HerE with .62" in the bucket. My sentiments exactly^^^^
LoX's latest. 9 hours of heavy rain and in the dark to boot.
"Timing of heaviest rainfall into Southwest California later tonight into Tuesday morning. Here are some more specific timings...

SBA County: 10 PM Tonight - 7 AM Tuesday
Ventura County: Midnight Tonight - 9 AM Tuesday
LA County: 2 AM Tuesday - 11 AM Tuesday"

Peak rainfall rates of 0.50-1.00 inch per hour, locally up to 1.5 inches per hour possible near thunderstorms.



Love the rain but that sounds like a serious disaster in the making. 1.5 inches per hour? Ouch! I would play it safe and get out of the way for the night.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:55 pm 
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Dave's Run
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I'd put things up 4 feet off the ground or on the second story and bug out til the rain stops myself.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:32 pm 
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Dave's Run
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LOX

.UPDATE...

Forecast is pretty much on track though looking at satellite and
the 00Z computer runs it looks like perhaps the timing is running
2 to 3 hours slower than previously through. Still no change in
the forecast amounts or intensities.

Rainfall amounts this afternoon were close to forecast and if
anything it looks like the foothill areas (esp in LA county)
received a little more rain than forecast.

Satellite and radar show the rain easing up across most of the
area and this is consistent with the hi-rez mdls the National
Computer center are running specifically for this event. Still
have to be cognizant of the fact that upslope flow over the
foothills and coastal slopes can produce significant rainfall
amounts that the radars do not see.


What looks likely for the overnight forecast is that the lull will
persist until around midnight. When the cold front nears the
Central Coast the south winds will increase across the entire
areas and this along with an increase in PVA will dramatically
increase the rainfall esp over the foothills.

Peak rainfall rates associated with the front will occur over
Southern SBA county between 2am and 5am, over VTA county 4am to
7am, and LA county just in time for rush hour 7am to 10am.

TSTMs look more and more likely with this event as better than
expected instability lift and cape move into the area with and
behind the front. The TSTM threat will persist through the day on
Tuesday and any storms that form will be capable or producing
damaging winds and/or flooding rains.

The wind warnings and advisories are limping along right now due
to the slower than expected arrival of the storm. The winds will
increase across the area through the evening starting across the
Central Coast and then working their to the east.

&&

What are these high res models that are frequently mentioned? Is it something new?

BTW, I am now over the total event forecast by .10" with hours to go, so you should expect more rainfall than forecast too.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:51 pm 
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Dave's Run
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
528 PM PST Mon Jan 8 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES, AS WELL AS PROPERTY DAMAGE. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, A COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
SANTA BARBARA, VENTURA, AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
DEPARTING FOR YOUR DESTINATION, AS THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES AND TRAFFIC DELAYS. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:15 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
I went looking for lightning and nothing too close yet to CA but right now a huge complex is blowing up in the GOM. Over 1000 in the grid.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:02 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
After a brief break w stars the next wave is here.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:50 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
We will see what tomorrow brings...I know its not trash day.

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:55 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
btw - http://www.facebook.com/NWSLosAngeles/v ... MI&fref=nf
High Resolution Rapid Refresh simulated RADAR precip intensities showing storm front moving through the area late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Height of storm should be between 2 AM and 8 AM with the heaviest rain and strongest winds. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers and a few thunderstorms should linger thru the rest of the day on Tuesday as well.

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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