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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:33 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Heaviest rain is moving thru up HeRe. I have had .9" in the last 3 hours and still going. Am now officially 1" OVER forecast precip. for the total event. This is what you have to look forward to. Something you wont have to look forward to: its not windy at all up here. Rain is falling straight down.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:23 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The first shot of heavy rain moving due north into the Santa Barbara area mountains is just moving onshore. I have a feeling it's going to be a long messy night for people in the Thomas fire area.

Meanwhile we have heavy rain down here too

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:14 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Ended up with double the forecast precip., 3.5" so I'm crossing my fingers for Ventura County.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:02 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
the circulation as it spins into the 805...! Evident in the radar and WV loops...
http://weather.us/satellite/1258-w-263- ... html#play2
lox this am
The storm is not exactly behaving as forecast. A 547 dm upper low
is 250 miles to the west of pt Conception. The surface low is just to
the west of the Bay area and the cold front is about 80 miles to
the west of the central coast. There is a large area of positive vorticity advection over
western sba County and is beginning to produce rainfall rates
over a half inch per hour. There is an area of negative vorticity advection over Ventura
County and this along with drying downsloping east winds have kept
the County mostly dry so far. An area of moist difluent flow is
over la County and this has kept light ocnl MDT rain going over
the area. The problem facing the forecast is the speed of the
front and the upper low. The upper low and front are just not
moving as fast as anticipated. Although now the confidence in
exact timing of the heavy rainfall is lower still think the
general forecast idea is good. Heavy rain will move from west to
east this morning. Good south flow ahead of front will create good
orographic lift and heavy rainfall along the south facing slopes.
These rainfall rates will be more than capable of producing flash
flooding esp in and around the recent burn areas

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:35 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Curious to see who gets the center and who gets this green lobe...
Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:13 am 
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Center Bowl
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Spirit Tree wrote:
Curious to see who gets the center and who gets this green lobe...
Image


Yeah, I was eyeing that green lobe with hope and anticipation. Hoping it hits HB hard and then have the center of the low drop by around noon with some nice thunderstorms. A little hail would be a nice touch.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:32 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Spirit Tree wrote:
Image

Image

Image

Received 1.79" so far. Tired of flipping to last page[/quote]

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:12 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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The lobe was a non event coming shore over Tijuana and going into the Salton Sea.

The more interesting blob is that part west of the center currently offshore. Where will it land? I say southern LA county and OC. The L doesnt seem in much of a hurry though.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:41 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
[quote="snowhottie"]The lobe was a non event coming shore over Tijuana and going into the Salton Sea.

The more interesting blob is that part west of the center currently offshore. Where will it land? I say southern LA county and OC. The L doesnt seem in much of a hurry though.

I have a gut feeling the blob will hit the 805, that should narrow it down...The rotation and how the L is anchored -SB/Ventura is my guess. Any further east; my backyard.
Let's see what kind of convection situations set up... I haven't seen any strikes yet.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:35 am 
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Center Bowl
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Spirit Tree wrote:
snowhottie wrote:
The lobe was a non event coming shore over Tijuana and going into the Salton Sea.

The more interesting blob is that part west of the center currently offshore. Where will it land? I say southern LA county and OC. The L doesnt seem in much of a hurry though.

I have a gut feeling the blob will hit the 805, that should narrow it down...The rotation and how the L is anchored -SB/Ventura is my guess. Any further east; my backyard.
Let's see what kind of convection situations set up... I haven't seen any strikes yet.


Yeah I think I jinxed it on the green lobe, shortly after I posted my hopes and dreams I could see it stretching and thinning out and swinging to the south. I will not be hoping for anything else with this storm. I no longer have an opinion either way.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:41 am 
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Center Bowl
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I see online that "good morning america" is saying "5 dead in deadly mudslides in California."
First off I highly doubt there were any mudslides, (debris flows and mud flows yes) and secondly I would bet that the 5 deaths were traffic related and not from "deadly mudslides" as they are implying. The roads were treacherous after months of no rain, super slippery.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:00 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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playfulcoyote wrote:
I see online that "good morning america" is saying "5 dead in deadly mudslides in California."
First off I highly doubt there were any mudslides, (debris flows and mud flows yes) and secondly I would bet that the 5 deaths were traffic related and not from "deadly mudslides" as they are implying. The roads were treacherous after months of no rain, super slippery.

NWS is saying mudslides. Did you see the pics of the 101?


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:02 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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That radar says the current blob is hitting right where they dont need it over the Thomas Fire burn area.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:08 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Montecito got it. Poor girl how frightening.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/loca ... 81983.html


https://www.nbclosangeles.com/multimedi ... 20873.html

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Last edited by snowhottie on Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:08 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Its pretty.
Image

Its definitely filling in again down the bight. Id think rain again here by 2pm.


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