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 Post subject: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:02 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
50 degrees w a thick damp fog.

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Quote:
Now, for the bad news. The low off the coast that finally
progresses eastward late Wed and Thu still appears to weaken
significantly and lift too far north for any precipitation here,
leaving us high and dry under weak ridging. The EC and GFS have
certainly come into better agreement with a second low dropping
south of out of the Gulf of Alaska later in the week. It`s a bit
of a messy situation with three separate lows developing within
the same mean trough - one off the coast of northern British
Columbia, one off the Northern CA coast that eventually becomes
absorbed in the first low and moves into the Pac NW Fri/Sat, and a
closed low in the base of the trough and digs way south over the
weekend before drifting east

towards Baja CA early next week.

Do
you know what that leaves us with?

More ridging and no rain. Both
the EC and GFS show a tap of subtropical moisture spreading into
Central and perhaps even parts of So Cal sometime Fri/Sat, but
even that remains mostly to the north of our forecast area. If it
did happen to make its way further south, the forcing is so weak
that it probably wouldn`t result in much precipitation, despite
what the 06Z GFS would lead you to believe. Left the slight
chances over northern parts of Orange County and far west
Riverside and San Bernardino Counties Friday afternoon just in
case, but it doesn`t look promising.

Otherwise we`ll stick with
high temps several degrees above normal and partly cloudy skies.
New year, same weather.


Oh boy...


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:33 pm 
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Dave's Run
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What have the local ski resorts been doing during all of this dry and warm weather?

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:08 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Summits on manmade.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:10 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Straight from LoX's discussion this AM -
"First off, want to wish everyone a Happy New Year moving into
2018."
and...SGX as well.
Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties...

"Happy New Year!"

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:44 am 
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Dave's Run
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LOX

Models hinting at the ridge really breaking down or at least
moving to the east which could allow another system to move into
the area on Monday. Normally I'd look with an extremely skeptical
eye that far out but the MJO is entering phase 2 which generally
can mean cooler and wetter for California, and the Climate
Prediction Center has above normal chances for precip in our area
from January 7th to the 15th.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:07 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
we'll see what happens...
Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:27 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Precip probabilities by CPC via SGX.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:39 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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Any of you have a weather bell account?

They have a post up on the winter of 1917/18

Winter of 17/18 was a lot like this one so far and that year February and March Mammoth got hammered.

Grasping for any hope I can, this is just depressing.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:54 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From Howard-

Lots of old-time locals often times remind us that some of the biggest winters can start from very dry falls. History tells us that big winters can start as late as January or February! So keep the faith and the shovels handy!

Todays weather guidance still has some light upper elevation snowfall for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is followed by another marginally wetter system for Friday into Saturday AM. That may give the upper mountain up to 6 inches according to the latest CRFC forecast. There is a more significant storm according to the European model and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. If the Euro is correct on its solution, then were off to the races! The GFS is not as wet as it keeps it further to the north.

More Later………………….:-)

He must have a Weather Bell account.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:19 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
For those following in SoCal. Precip is still only on that 7day happyfrillyfantasyfringe. I think climo has to be 15% by now so theres always that.

No weather bell but Bastardi has mentioned the 100yr analog. Hes been pretty on for the Ecoast coldass trough and this winter w an EC bias. Im interpreting him as a week or so in the middle of Jan [for the W] then back to the E. Unfortunately. But then Feb March is ours right?


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:14 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Another theory from someone we can't name....
...and yes the article keeps on going.

December 19, 2017 at 6:04 pm
Details: Southern California Drought Might Be Caused By Underwater Volcanic Activity In The Pacific
by admin

The persistent ridge of high pressure that causes warm water just west of Oregon and Washington, in return causing a surface high pressure center that moves to mid-level high pressure that deflects storms into Oregon and Washington and not Southern California may be caused by Volcanic Activity underwater. Read on more for details.

During El Nino the waters of the equator warm up and this causes a high pressure center on the equator that shoves storms into Hawaii and then the Pineapple Express takes them into California. This never fails and has always happened … But what about during the years we have that pesky ridge of high pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Well.. .Water temperatures are up in the Northeast Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Washington and no one knows why. I do … I firmly believe, as well as my plumber friend Steve (who works with water) that the pattern favors volcanic activity that is going unnoticed. No one is researching in real-time what is happening in those areas.

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:36 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Chemtrails lost their excitement?

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:16 pm 
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Dave's Run
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He missed the impacts from the Salton Sea volcano... ;)


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:57 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Warm tropical feel this morning....

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:52 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Posts: 9394
Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Spirit Tree I follow a Mex/Baja travel and weather page on FB. Ive appreciated the pix of places I might want to travel and weather trivia in MEX I may never have known.

Then BAM that article shows up on my feed...translated to Spanish.
AAAAAAH! It somehow soured the whole experience in perpetuity.


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