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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:57 pm 
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Climax
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^^^I noticed that this morning as well but the precipitable water values were just so low.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Hemlock Ridge
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Cheapski, we're getting the gang back together August 18 for Camperoo at Jackson Flat. Let me know if you have any desire to come on down for it and I'll give you more information.. If we are lucky, maybe we will get stuck in another thunderstorm. Good times!!!! You should still have my number. If not, I'm probably even listed.

I rarely look at the forum anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:35 am 
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Dave's Run
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From WG's latest: "Overall, there are no clear signs of the next powder day." - mic drop


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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:05 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Long range qpf showing nada for the next two weeks. Here's week 2:

Image

Persistence is important.

Oops somehow posted the last one instead of the new one...


Last edited by SurfnSnowboard on Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:05 pm 
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Dave's Run
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RatherBeSkiing wrote:
I rarely look at the forum anymore.

Thats OK I never look at Facebook. :D

I am hoping that the GFS snaps out of this cutoff low thinking and goes back to a breakthru of the ridge. Although, that cutoff low would benefit SoCal.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:43 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The 12Z has the cutoff low wandering around before coming ashore in SoCal.

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:11 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It's looking like the firefall in Yosemite won't happen this year unless things change pretty quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:11 pm 
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Dave's Run
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SF/Monterey:

Still no clear indication of when we can expect to see the pattern
substantially changing. Long range CFS and ECMWF continue to
highlight a potential return to rain starting around the 20th.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:34 am 
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Dave's Run
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snowhottie wrote:
I am hoping that the GFS snaps out of this cutoff low thinking and goes back to a breakthru of the ridge. Although, that cutoff low would benefit SoCal.


And it did while keeping the cutoff low back inland.

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:28 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The GFS is going crazy.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:00 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The long range qpf went from dry to wet in about the last 8 hours. Too far out to get excited.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Dave's Run
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No lets get excited for some light snow at least.

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:41 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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A little back door action for this monday system this same syst will re strengthen off of SD . The moisture plume it'll entrain will most likely stream up to AZ missing most of socal with SD having the better odds.

The big news here is the EC's change of tune here regarding Prez WK. It now has a much deeper system with both over water movement and cold air support. Along with some east upslope orograhpic. Relatively slow moving as depicted the low eventually drops into Baja bringing socal a good wallop if it verifies. The EPS has struggled so I'm not going to lock into this solution just yet regarding the depth it shows with the 18th storm. Fri 0Z EC operational also depicts this. 12Z s will be released in a few hours. Models always struggle during transition periods, but props to the EC op as it did forecast almost 10 days out the cut off closed low off of socal. GFS has been doing a better job overall...

Sunday 18th 4pm pst 0z ensemble run
Image


Last edited by bombtripper on Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:11 am 
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Dave's Run
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Howard? ^ :D

Nah, can't be. Everything is spelled correctly.

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 Post subject: Re: Fortuitous Frebruary Freeze
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:32 am 
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Dave's Run
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I've always liked Bombtripper's reports... but who is he? :geek: The mystery deepens

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