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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:06 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
GFS has the 12th going to 4.89" QPF same aprox. bullseye..We will see
June would be my pick today.Looks so nice. Beam me up Scotty..

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:59 pm 
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Dave's Run
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From Reno-

While models have been struggling with details, overall agreement
remains in a few systems pushing through California and Nevada for
the second half of the week and next weekend.

The system moving through the region Thursday and Friday will
likely be fueled by a weak atmospheric river directed at the
Oregon Coast. Winds should start to increase late Wednesday, with
some impacts to air and ground travel more likely on Thursday.
Peak gusts Thursday could reach 40-55 mph in the lower elevations
with 70-90 mph winds possible for the Sierra ridges. Light rain
and snow should reach the northern Sierra Thursday morning. With
the moisture plume directed toward Oregon, the eastern Sierra
and western Nevada may have to wait for precipitation until
second system arrives over the weekend. Operational runs are
struggling with consistency and have been jumping in and out of
phase with the ensemble guidance. Best not to put too much stock
on one model run at this time. There is a good amount of
confidence in a wet period through limited confidence on rain and
snow totals due to the location and duration of the weak AR.

Models are showing a second wave moving into the region for Sunday
into Monday. Not a ton of confidence in potential impacts, but
the wet period may continue through next week with an AR on the
horizon for the ides of March. Bron

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:08 am 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
A 11th/12th subtle snow 53" at bullseye area....37.56,-119.28. All with a grain of salt at 200hrs out.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:25 am 
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Dave's Run
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The 00Z Euro has a brush by on Thurs., and a little something on Sun. 11th from the south, then something more substantial around the 12th and even something coming in at the end of the 10 day period.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:50 pm 
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7 day qpf is showing the storm for the 12th now. It removed basically all the precip for this week and is essentially showing only precip on Sunday and Monday.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:47 pm 
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Dave's Run
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That is pretty much what the NWS and Howard are both saying.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:35 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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from Howard's discussion:

"The other change is in the timing of the main precipitation push, which now highlights Saturday Night into Sunday instead of Sunday night. This late weekend storm has the potential of bringing several feet of wetter snow to the upper elevations through Monday with nearly non stop snowfall possibly between its exit and the timing of the passage of the main mother low which may slow down through the 15th and not come through until Friday night the 16th. We could see another 5 to 9 feet over the crest should all of that happen……Miracle March anyone?"


Should make the avalanche situation even more interesting then it is already.

From the Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center (thanks for the link S.L.):

"The snowpack structure this season is much more complex than we have seen in a long time. Deeply buried weak sugary facet layers can be found through much of our region. You won’t find this a concern in lower elevation slopes which weren’t covered in snow prior to this recent storm. Upper elevation exposed areas could be less likely as well either due to much deeper snow deposits, or significant bridging from thick hard wind-slabs. The middle elevations which have been covered with enough snow all season to cover up bushes and other potential anchors are the most concerning in terms of the greatest potential for a large deep slab avalanche occurring. Besides avalanche concern, lower elevation slopes which were previously very thin or bare before this last storm have lots of barely covered obstacle."


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:39 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
^ There were countless medical calls to the mountain after the light storm before this last big one where skiers/riders hit covered rocks and took some serious face and body plants.

Now everyone needs to be more aware of tree well safety or Snow Immersion Suffocation (SIS) again.

http://www.nsaa.org/safety-programs/tre ... ow-safety/

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:08 am 
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Dave's Run
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The 00Z GFS looked pretty exciting for the next 2 weeks with more cold storms dropping down, like last week.

Image

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:35 am 
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7 day qpf just jumped about 2" for Mammoth with the 08z issue. It had been trending drier for the last few days.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:43 am 
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Dave's Run
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If the models are correct once the 20th comes into range the QPF should substantially increase.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:37 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
12 Z GFS. Rather active next week and cold air as Cheapski mentioned.
Sorry about the speed rather fast through fantasy land, but that doesn't count any how..
Image

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:51 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
Accumulated QPF at 1.57"
Image
Accumulated QPF is 4.'' This is where all those math classes pay off...
...apparently more to follow.
Image

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:18 pm 
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Dave's Run
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How's the wind supposed to be this weekend?

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:25 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Spirit Tree wrote:
12 Z GFS. Rather active next week and cold air as Cheapski mentioned.
Sorry about the speed rather fast through fantasy land, but that doesn't count any how..
Image



Wow, what kind of mushrooms were those in my omelet.


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