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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 5:40 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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More orange in the latest 7 day. Miracle March continues. If this verifies Mammoth could be close to 80% of normal for April 1st.

Image


Last edited by SurfnSnowboard on Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 5:55 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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That's quite the turn around from a couple weeks ago. A very subpar year to close to average? Amazing! #miraclemarch


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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At this time of the year the drive between Reno and Mammoth Tuesday between 3-6pm shouldn't be an issue right?


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:20 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
00Z GFS still has over 7" of QPF through Sunday...

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:28 pm 
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Climax
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Location: South facing foothills of the Santa Susanas
baiuse wrote:
At this time of the year the drive between Reno and Mammoth Tuesday between 3-6pm shouldn't be an issue right?

Tuesday looks fine...just bring them chains. Earlier the better, then it starts to fill in.
Just keep on checking, things can change...http://quickmap.dot.ca.gov/

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Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the places and moments that take our breath away. - ANONYMOUS


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:34 pm 
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Dave's Run
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baiuse wrote:
At this time of the year the drive between Reno and Mammoth Tuesday between 3-6pm shouldn't be an issue right?


Check the snow levels at Bridgeport.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wxtab ... =-119.2276

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:16 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Howard is very bullish on the next storm series -
From http://www.mammothweather.com

Saturday’s light rain and snow did little to enhance the snowpack over the Eastern Sierra. However, that should change as a cold upper low sets up residence over the Eastern Pacific. Looking the Sunday 18Z GFS, the upper tough was located about 145west with the cold core very large and expansive. So not only is this system cold but it also has a large enough pool to last several days once it gets to the central west coast.

500 MB temps now are at up to -40C with 700Mb temps into the mid -20sC Lots of energy!

The upstream ridge behind the cold Trof builds over the top of the system for a while and acts to cut it off. However, not before it is sets up close enough along the west coast! All forecast models indicate that Southwest to westerly flow will dominate the pattern into next Friday! So this storm becomes stationary for a while and that makes it quite unpredictable as far as the timing of the more significant waves of moisture that flow into the sierra at this distance in time. There is a lot of energy indicated by the models behind this trough (trof). The whole pattern is highlighted by a persistent long wave Trof that may last through the upcoming week or longer. The main message here is that forecasters have been watching this storm for sometime now and confidence is increasing that we will be in quite cold and snowy pattern through this Friday or possibly longer depending upon which model you believe. a good 3 to 6 feet is possible on Mammoth Mt this week with between 1.5 to 3 feet in town by Friday

GFS has next weekend cold and sort of showery Saturday and dry weather possible Sunday.

The ECMWF (Euro) Ensemble has the Trof reloading time and time again with almost non stop snowfall through the 24th. Wowie Zowie!



Here is the long range QPF by both Models for the Central Sierra on Sunday’s model run in inches of water with snow to water ratios of at least 10:1, and at times possibly 13:1 or greater.

GFS: deterministic 18z Sunday Run the upcoming 10 day period. 7 inches of water in the San Joaquin drainage
ECMWF: 12Z Deterministic has 7 to 9 inches in the SJD
Sundays 12Z ECMWF EPD Control has 7 to 9 inches in the SJD while the 15 day shows some 15 inches!
The ECMWF 12Z EPD Ensemble mean has about 7 inches

The upper jet approaches our area Tuesday AM and so expect the winds to begin cranking in the early morning.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:24 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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For reference, 15" of water is equal to 1/3 of the average season precipitation for Mammoth.

Cold and snowy. Spring can wait.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:25 pm 
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Dave's Run
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I discovered that wrapping your Xmas lights around a plant wards off a freeze. My neighbors think I'm trailer trash but my tomato from Summer is still going.

Quote:
The ECMWF (Euro) Ensemble has the Trof reloading time and time again with almost non stop snowfall through the 24th. Wowie Zowie!


Something real interesting. After Tues. evening, the forecast table has the snow level dropping to 4000 ft and staying there for the duration of the week. That could cause real travel impacts on the highways east of the central valley.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:24 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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I hope I am wrong but my skepticism is running really high with Howard's forecast. Maybe I am just trying to protect myself from being disappointed if it doesn't verify but I don't think it will work. I need to start thinking positively and be happy with whatever we get. Naw, that won't work either, I want what I was promised and then some.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:29 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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[quote="snowhottie"]I discovered that wrapping your Xmas lights around a plant wards off a freeze. My neighbors think I'm trailer trash but my tomato from Summer is still going.


Maybe you've discovered a genetic mutation and should patent your new "Christmas Ornament" variety of Tomato.
Save some seeds.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:42 am 
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Dave's Run
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playfulcoyote wrote:
I hope I am wrong but my skepticism is running really high with Howard's forecast. Maybe I am just trying to protect myself from being disappointed if it doesn't verify but I don't think it will work. I need to start thinking positively and be happy with whatever we get. Naw, that won't work either, I want what I was promised and then some.

From the SoCal thread:

snowhottie wrote:
This is the story from SF:

Quote:
At the synoptic level, forecast models show a very unsettled
weather pattern through the next week, if not beyond, beginning
with the arrival of a broad trough into the region tonight into
tomorrow. This broad trough contains several embedded vorticity
maxima, of which two are strong enough to create their own
circulations within the broader parent trough. These vorticity
maxima will play off of each others angular momentum cause the
broader parent trough to become sluggish, if not quasistationary
as it moves over the area, leading to this extended streak of
unsettled weather.


Image

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:08 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
playfulcoyote wrote:
I hope I am wrong but my skepticism is running really high with Howard's forecast. Maybe I am just trying to protect myself from being disappointed if it doesn't verify but I don't think it will work. I need to start thinking positively and be happy with whatever we get. Naw, that won't work either, I want what I was promised and then some.

From the SoCal thread:

snowhottie wrote:
This is the story from SF:

Quote:
At the synoptic level, forecast models show a very unsettled
weather pattern through the next week, if not beyond, beginning
with the arrival of a broad trough into the region tonight into
tomorrow. This broad trough contains several embedded vorticity
maxima, of which two are strong enough to create their own
circulations within the broader parent trough. These vorticity
maxima will play off of each others angular momentum cause the
broader parent trough to become sluggish, if not quasistationary
as it moves over the area, leading to this extended streak of
unsettled weather.


Image



I've been hurt too many times in the past, I don't know if I can learn to trust again.
I want to but I don't know if I can.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:31 pm 
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Hemlock Ridge
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"Trust in Ullr with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths snowy."


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:03 pm 
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Dave's Run
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^^ Hopefully PCoyote wont have to suffer a bout of boils.

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