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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:05 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
Yes, the sun turned the roads black this morning and early this afternoon.

By 3:30 it was dumping again and the snow was super wet and heavy. The roads I had to drive on to run two errands then make a 4:00 appointment were a slushy mess.

I had shoveled off our front porch and railing plus in front of our garage around 2:00 and this is what I came home to around 5:30! Now it's clearing again (at 6 p.m.) with blue sky showing in town. Ready for Round 3!

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:25 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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New 7 day includes the higher qpf from the 48hr qpf that cheapski posted.

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:59 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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AM QPF

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:16 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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^ Any way you look at it that's REAL bad for the folks in Montecito. It's easy to forget just what they are going through but this brought it home; We hosted a soccer tournament in Long Beach and a team from Santa Barbara took part. A week before they would have been cut off and their 2 hour drive would have been more like 6 just to get down here. They showed up minus two people; one of their referees threw his back out shoveling mud out of his house, and one of the girls (age 11) had to attend the funeral of her best friend.

Here's hoping the worst is over now...


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:21 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Too far north for Mammoth today

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:35 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl

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I believe they've backed off on the amount of snow for Friday night and Saturday morning
Was: 9-14 and 2-4
Now 3-7 and 1

I hope that trend doesn't continue or reverses.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:39 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Location: Hell awaits...
Fridays storm itll hit tahoe more directly, core low prob not going to drop far enough south to dump it big for mammoth. Snow starts later tonight but the main precip will be mostly during op hrs on fri. Mammoth looking 12-18" by sat; a wider spread than usual I place cuz it just depends how far the core low drops or stay north.

snow forecast 101
First phase of the storm patrol recorded 1.52 liquid equiv, and out of that .49 of it was RAIN; the rest produced 8" of heavy snow. The wednesday afternoon storm wave produced 7" of snow from .65 of liquid. (sesame snow study). The point here there seems to be a fallacious approach on figuring out certain things like snowfall total and using the thickness (vertical depth of temps) lines for snowfall levels. Thickness needs careful consideration cuz its not always accurate at face value. The other thing is the misconception of snow ratio, 1" of liquid means 10" of snow, or the Tahoe kooks on facebook would suggest 10" of liquid will result in a 100 FEET of snow. People have not grasp there is more to it than that simple conclusion. Therefore, the one map I never use is the total snowfall map. And here's another thing, I think often people are misreading the QPF as it pertains to the forecast's target actual location on the QPF map.

Which brings the 21st storm.. it is still advertising a sub trop tap but there are issues I have in making this out as a multiple feet accumulation, and to name a couple- shadowing and of course 9000ft snow level to start. This one it might rain up to mccoy. QPF- all i'm going to say is don't believe the hype this storm has, it has many more days left so details could change. After the 21st storm the west coast ridges up for a bit according to the operational and ensemble euro models.

NWS reno today wrote:
Next system of note is forecast to arrive by early Wednesday,
which is slightly slower than previous model solutions. This
system should have an atmospheric river tied to it, so there is
potential for significant snows in the Sierra. This system does
have a warmer and more southerly origin, so snow levels will be
higher (start at or above 6000-7000 feet) with highest
precipitation potential from Tahoe to Mammoth. Brong


sample snow levels relationship to thickness
558 ~9 K
552 ~7300 K

case study
Image
storm on 13th see map of the operational euro; it tells many things except for accumulative qpf, my snow level forecast 8500-9K, snowfall total at sesame 8-10" wed morning.

Honestly this post is not to brag or shame anyone it's should expand the thinking for people reading. Do your own forecasting don't >>always<<believe the hype.

Wow I complained and someone listened; thank you!
http://media-mammothresorts-com.s3-webs ... ummary.htm


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:55 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Hater.

Thanks BT.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:55 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Alright cheaps, where are some new charts? :)


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:08 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Location: Little slice of heaven in the Eastern Sierra
bombtripper wrote:
Honestly this post is not to brag or shame anyone it's should expand the thinking for people reading. Do your own forecasting don't >>always<<believe the hype.

^ Ha, you know my silly saying..."Don't count your snowflakes before they hatch." I rarely believe the hype. I believe it when I'm shoveling it...LOL!

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:32 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Mammoth is now at about 70%of normal precipitation for the season. If the current 7 day qpf is close to correct it'll be over 80%80 by next weekend.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:23 am 
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Dave's Run
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I agree with BT about being cautious about the AR storm. It will either be rain up the wazoo or if MM is lucky lotsa snow. I do recall an event a few years ago where we all thought the snow levels would be really high, but they came in lower and there was copious snow. It all depends where the hose ends up.

bretfarewell, Maue turned the link over to New England. Meh.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:19 am 
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Dave's Run
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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:37 am 
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Dave's Run
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Posts: 1895
Looking at the cams this morning and it looks like its coming down pretty hard with big flakes.


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 Post subject: Re: Stormsss MARCHing through...
PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:00 am 
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Cornice Bowl
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Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:30 pm
Posts: 505
bombtripper wrote:
Honestly this post is not to brag or shame anyone it's should expand the thinking for people reading. Do your own forecasting don't >>always<<believe the hype.


I came on here this morning hoping to see some hype and instead I am hit with a dose of reality.

Personally I like the hype, then again I do find myself continually being disappointed by the end result. I wonder if there is a connection? Nah!.... Hey I hear it's going to really dump this weekend, Whoo Hooo! BT said something about getting 100 feet of snow at a 120:1 ratio. Awesome, I just don't know if that is going to support my weight though. And don't sneeze or you will strip the mountain of snow.

Actually, I do appreciate the lesson and the forecast BT, thanks.


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