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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:21 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Yeah I wanted to ask Washoe Zephyr if the Tahoe base could possibly withstand this rain. I have a feeling it cant so the April 15 closings may come sooner.

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:48 pm 
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Dave's Run
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imagine the boilerplate after this storm tho...

I saw a Batman absolutely flying down Stump a few weeks ago... wonder if it was that guy :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:35 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The Merced River in Yosemite is forecast to crest 5.6ft above flood stage on Saturday afternoon. Look for Yosemite to be closed since the roads will probably be flooded. That's a big flood for that area. 6.5ft above flood stage puts it into the top 5 category.

The Truckee and Carson rivers are also expected to peak above flood stage.

New 72 hour qpf. 7 day now showing precip from the following storm.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:38 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Could you imagine if a storm like this hit last year with the snowpack they had then.


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:09 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Would rain be better absorbed by a deep snowpack?

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:15 pm 
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Dave's Run
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snowhottie wrote:
The forecast for me has been dramatically raised from around 1.5" last night to 3.75" as of now!


Aaand now its back to 2.46". What am I to believe.

Quote:
PWAT values of 1.50" to 1.80" are expected


Aha its been reduced.

Here it comes!

Image

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:47 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Something odd is going on. The CNRFC did an afternoon update and they literally cut precip. on the western Sierra in half for the 6 day. Or did they change scales again and I didnt see that. This morning I saw areas approaching 9" for the 6 days.
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForeca ... A&imgNum=1

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:31 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Yes they changed the scale on you cheapski. It was a max of 6" and now it's doubled. No real change around Mammoth maybe a slight increase to 4".


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:40 pm 
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Dave's Run
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I knew I needed a new prescription. Nonetheless, the forecast for me was certainly cut quite a lot from this morning.

SurfnSnowboard wrote:
The Merced River in Yosemite is forecast to crest 5.6ft above flood stage on Saturday afternoon. Look for Yosemite to be closed since the roads will probably be flooded. That's a big flood for that area. 6.5ft above flood stage puts it into the top 5 category.


Wow wow

Image

At the bottom of this page is a link to the Merced River webcam.
https://www.nps.gov/yose/learn/photosmu ... ebcams.htm

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:55 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
Would rain be better absorbed by a deep snowpack?


I would think so, I was thinking more about the greater snow coverage at the lower elevations. Plus the snow pack last year was probably already saturated. I wonder if the drier snowfall this year has already been compressed enough that it has already lost it's ability to absorb a lot of rain. I guess well find out.


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:20 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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So the forecast for the Merced River was bumped up to 17+ft which is 7 ft above flood stage. Here's the reference for flooding in Yosemite:

9.0 Feet Chapel Meadow (south side of river) and Cooks Meadow (north side of river) begins to experience overflow.

9.5 Feet Portion of Lower Pines Campground becomes flooded. Limited site-specific evacuations begin at Housekeeping Camp located along the south-facing bank of the Merced River. (Upstream from Sentinel Bridge and downstream from Stoneman Bridge)

10.0 Feet Western portion of North Pines Campground, located at the east end of Yosemite Valley between the confluence of the Merced River and Tenaya Creek, begins to flood. Water rises to the base of the swinging bridge downstream from Chapel Meadow.

12.5 Feet Northside Drive and Southside Drive, which are the main roads in Yosemite Valley, become flooded and are closed to traffic.


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:35 am 
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Morning 72hr qpf. 7 shows higher totals mostly for NorCal from the midweek storm.

Image


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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:41 am 
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Dave's Run
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Factoid from Monterey

Despite all of the available moisture,
one component missing to fully realize rainfall potential is large
scale ascent. Previous AR events that had epic rainfall amounts
were aided by either upper level jets or a very potent sfc
front/convection. This current scenario has neither as the main
jet remains north and no convection is forecast. There will be
some ascent, but not blockbuster. One interesting factoid from
this AR event is the projected total water vapor transport is
greater than approximately 25 Mississippi Rivers worth of water.
Just flat out WOW! (source: Center for W Weather and Water
Extremes).

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:21 am 
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Afternoon qpf showing just minor changes

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 Post subject: Re: APRIL rain storms
PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:04 pm 
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Dave's Run
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The precip. has been pulled back quite a bit on the southern fringes.

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