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 Post subject: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 10:31 am 
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Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl

Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:02 pm
Posts: 734
It has begun - with a whimper;
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tropical-cyclone-possible-in-gulf-of-mexico-florida-memorial-day-weekend/

Quote:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Alberto, located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea just east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on 1
June.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:33 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Aletta.
And set to make the curve. I surmise w the troughs still bringing eddys into June it would tend to keep the tracks to the NW and then curving back to N America. Maybe?

Image


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:27 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl

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If she holds together long enough - might make it into the swell window.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:50 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Aletta is forecast to hit Cat 1 in the 60 hour period. Should weaken fairly quickly afterwards.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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Posts: 791
Location: Hell awaits...
EC HAS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK GFS A MORE NORTHLY, MORE WN TRACK WILL GIVE A BETTER SWELL SHOT BUT WILL GET OVERRUN BY THE A NEW S HEMI SWELL. THE MORE N TRACK WILL KILL IT MUCH FASTER.

MAP BELOW SHOWS THE NEXT DSITRUBANCE, IF NAMED, BOB.
CURRENT NHC

“1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for
development this weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.”

Image

EURO OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE 12ZS HAVE THE 2ND HURRICANE (BOB)… DIFFERENCES ARE IT’S PAINTED AS A STRONGER SPINNER A LITTLE BIGGER AND IT’S PROG TO HIT THE TIP OF BAJA. ADD THE POSSIBLITY OF MOONSOONAL TROPICAL INFLUENCE FROM THE REMNANTS AROUND FATHERS DAY WK IF UPPER AIR CIRCULATIONS WRK OUT.
12Z EC OPERATIONAL FOR 10AM FRI JUNE 15
Image


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:59 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Heyyy baybee, nice outflow there.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 4:31 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Wow how did Aletta go from "might be a hurricane in 60 hours" to "full blown major hurricane in 24 hours"?


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:14 am 
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Dave's Run
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Is it just me or has rapid intensification become the norm the last few years? It used to be a rare thing.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:28 am 
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Cornice Bowl
Cornice Bowl

Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:02 pm
Posts: 734
SurfnSnowboard wrote:
Wow how did Aletta go from "might be a hurricane in 60 hours" to "full blown major hurricane in 24 hours"?

No kidding - I was ready to write her off yesterday PM - now nothing would surprise me.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:50 am 
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Dave's Run
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Yesterday the outflow was very healthy and symmetrical so there was no shear. There was nothing inhibiting development.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:33 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
"Bud's about to grow."
lol Nice headline for S Baja.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:17 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Wow Cat 4. I'm impressed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:10 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Two hurricanes, two major storms. Off to a roaring start to the season.

*edit*

Make that two Cat 4s!

Tracks have it going almost directly towards Cabo or slightly west which would put Cabo in the front right quadrant. Models are split on intensity 72 hours out though, half show Cat 2 or even 3 and other half more like TS. Regardless, surf will definitely be WAY up in Cabo.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:29 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
Im in the TS camp ramping down from today.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Tropical Spinners!
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:46 pm 
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Dave's Run
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What a nothing name. Bud. How unpoetic.

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