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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:56 pm 
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Dave's Run
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2NAKLLR wrote:
Feb now seems to be fitting the La Nina template and everything gets deflected N for a dry SW...


mostly everything?

or did OC get deflected north overnight, too? :D

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:15 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Scraps. And dont even ask for "More, please."


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:46 pm 
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Dave's Run
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:twisted:
























:cry:

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:41 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Image

she delivers, maaaan

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:13 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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So, we're neutral making it more difficult to have any attributable forecastable effects. And when it was La Nina we were influenced.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:16 am 
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Rodger's Ridge
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It seems to me that we get heavy precip. in neutral years.

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:13 am 
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Center Bowl
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Opps, wrong thread. Can't delete so I just edited. Sorry.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:21 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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They were completely wrong on the seasonal forecast for this season and last so their inability to forecast with confidence isn't a loss.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:23 pm 
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SurfnSnowboard wrote:
They were completely wrong on the seasonal forecast for this season and last so their inability to forecast with confidence isn't a loss.

"Palms Read"

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:07 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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What Kind of La Niña Year Is This?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/research-highlight-what-kind-la-ni%C3%B1a-year
Quote:
Scientists had been anticipating since last summer that La Niña, the phenomenon often associated with dry and somewhat cool weather on the West Coast, would develop this winter and extend a five-year drought across the Southwest.

But as it turns out, La Niña, yin to El Niño’s yang, has decided to stay home this year. Cool waters in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific were relatively weak—barely registering as a La Niña. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center looks for a sustained period of eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures falling 0.5° C below average before officially designating La Niña winters. Researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego and elsewhere have their doubts that criterion will be met.

Instead, the real story this winter has been the occurrence of a series of short storm bursts that have amounted to California’s best water year since 2011. January 2017 will likely be remembered as a classical drought-busting episode that has inundated California and Nevada. While state officials are reluctant to declare an end to the drought because some depleted water stocks take years to replenish, much of the dryness has been reversed.

Pretty interesting paper.
El nino was too big to fail and left the job for la hermana to bail out CA.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:15 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The woman had to do the job the guy couldnt. :*

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:02 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Quote:
The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the probability around 50%. The baseline chance of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions occurring in the fall of any random year are about 33% each. Our current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -ni%C3%B1a

Great. Back to "drought". *ducks*


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:47 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
·
We interrupt this hurricane season for an important message. Euro joins CFSV2 in healthy La nina for winter. this is a cfsv2 coup
Carry on

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:51 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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She's back! La Niña is here, La Niña is here!

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/la-ni ... rtheast-us


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:57 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Meh.
Based on recent history I think the woolly bears are more accurate for seasonal predictions.


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