Dr Jeff Master Blog from 1/29/2016
Some hopeful signals for the weekend and beyondhttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ng-drought
The latest Pacific storm to approach California is trending southward in model projections, a good sign that the Los Angeles area has a shot at its healthiest rains in almost a month. Another good sign: this storm has a robust channel of moisture extending southwestward to the tropical Central Pacific. Local forecasters expect as much as 1” in coastal areas and up to 2” in the mountains and foothills, and those numbers may prove low. If this storm comes through as expected, it will bump the area up to well-above-average totals just in time to close out January. Things may quiet down again for the first few days of February, but that’s not so unusual for SoCal, where even a torrentially wet winter by local standards may see rainfall on only a few days.
In its most recent experimental forecast discussion for weeks 3-4, issued on Friday afternoon and valid for the period Feb. 13-26, NOAA points to model indications that the subtropical jet will undercut Pacific ridging and enhance the odds of above-average rainfall and snowfall over far Southern California and much of the Southwest. As shown in Figure 6 (below), the week 3-4 probabilities have that certain El Niño look to them.