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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:51 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:20 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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We're only 3 weeks into winter. It's way too early to be worrying about whether this El Niño is a bust or not. Now if it hasn't kicked in by early February then it might not kick in at all.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:17 pm 
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Dragon's Back
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already better then last season


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:38 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
A lot of places arent.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:42 am 
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Kiwi Flat
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San Diego precip vs last 2 big ENSOs.
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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:59 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Dr Jeff Master Blog from 1/29/2016
Quote:
Some hopeful signals for the weekend and beyond
The latest Pacific storm to approach California is trending southward in model projections, a good sign that the Los Angeles area has a shot at its healthiest rains in almost a month. Another good sign: this storm has a robust channel of moisture extending southwestward to the tropical Central Pacific. Local forecasters expect as much as 1” in coastal areas and up to 2” in the mountains and foothills, and those numbers may prove low. If this storm comes through as expected, it will bump the area up to well-above-average totals just in time to close out January. Things may quiet down again for the first few days of February, but that’s not so unusual for SoCal, where even a torrentially wet winter by local standards may see rainfall on only a few days.

In its most recent experimental forecast discussion for weeks 3-4, issued on Friday afternoon and valid for the period Feb. 13-26, NOAA points to model indications that the subtropical jet will undercut Pacific ridging and enhance the odds of above-average rainfall and snowfall over far Southern California and much of the Southwest. As shown in Figure 6 (below), the week 3-4 probabilities have that certain El Niño look to them.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ng-drought


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2016 1:02 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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Goodbye Godzilla El Niño we hardly knew ye

Niño 3.4 anomalies are now below the +0.5 threshold for an El Niño and dropping fast. Models indicate a pretty quick transition to La Niña. That's typical after a strong El Niño but the models are unreliable this time of year so it's wait and see how things are looking in September.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:05 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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The much hyped 2015-16 El Nino should be a cautionary experience in weather forecasting. The regions that were supposed to suck (PNW, northern Rockies of both US and Canada) had the most snow relative to average in North America. And it would have been far above average if not for a super warm and dry April, after most of these areas had closed due to remote location and lack of customers. Who had the MOST snow relative to average last season? That would be Big White at 133%, and the rest of western Canada's Okanagan region was not far behind. Meanwhile Southern California and Arizona came in at 59% and 78%.

I believed enough of the hype myself and bought a Baldy pass, used only on the afternoon of Feb. 1, when I went out there to pick it up. http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards ... =3&t=12036


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 2:44 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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I was really optimistic about this one since it was so strong and it was a multi-year event. Those two are usually a very good indicator that it will be a wet winter in central and southern California. Obviously not this year. I suppose Mammoth was fortunate to have such a decent season start to finish.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:40 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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The weekly NINO3.4 SST is -0.6C which puts it into the La Niña territory. Of course it has to stay below -0.5C for months to officially become a La Niña. Models show it becoming pretty strong by late fall going into winter.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2016 4:02 pm 
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Dave's Run
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nice, one of the epic years in memory was a la nina ... so, yeah. awesome. lol

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2016 5:53 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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If the ocean water off of So Cal is going to get colder than normal, it has a long way to go. Water temps in the 70's - easily the warmest CA water I've ever surfed in. It would be uncomfortable in anything more than a spring suit.


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:41 pm 
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Rodger's Ridge
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My friend is swimming the Pier to Pier this weekend and whichever station she checked said the water temp. was 74°.

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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 7:07 pm 
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Center Bowl
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What's a Col?

http://mammothweather.com/2016/08/11/up ... -peddle-o/


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 Post subject: Re: Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..
PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:43 am 
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Dave's Run
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liftedtacoma wrote:


I'm guessing it means a "closed off low"

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