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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:14 pm 
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Dave's Run
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playfulcoyote wrote:
I don't know how forceful they were in their evacuation efforts but something like this should not have come as a complete shock. They were predicting heavy thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 1.5 inches per hour over steep freshly baked soil. I heard they sent out reverse 911 calls but not until after the flash floods had occurred. I suspect that people did not realize the danger level of the situation. With an out of control wildfire it is easy to understand the danger and to see it coming and people evacuate but something like this I guess it is hard for people to visualize what may happen. The property damage couldn't have been stopped but those canyons should have been evacuated for the night.


I think another factor is how far the debris flow went. Its one thing to be backed right up against the burn and have a visual of how it could come down, but like being trapped in a Utah box canyon when the tstorm thats flash flooding it is happening miles away, you dont necessarily think of it unless you're geeks like us. It was hard sitting here that night watching the storm unfolding and the forecast precip. getting so cranked up having a good inkling of what would be going down when it hit SoCal. IMO that entire front of the fire area is a danger zone and everybody should just go during a storm this rain season. Being inconvenienced is better than being dead.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:38 pm 
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NASA provided a before and after satellite view of the affected area.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/loca ... 37103.html

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:26 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Pretty epic destruction. Not in a good way. It makes me remember Oso WA.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Oso_mudslide

It was so catastrophic. I remember thinking then that the searchers might not ever find some missing...
I hope there is lessons learned in the search from that event and hope for the best.

I have a friend of a kayakfishing associate whose 2 daughters were among the missing and I read one was announced today as deceased. RIP and empathy.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:49 am 
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
After our moment of silence and reflection we move on w WX...talk.
snowhottie wrote:
The GFS sez, open the storm doors for CA around Jan. 16. And a particularly strong one for SoCal around the 19th.

That appears to be holding hope. At least the top 2/3 of CA for 16ish and the rest 19ish.

The last storm morphed into a day early and stayd pretty true considering the varibles we actually could see on loops.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:50 pm 
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Dave's Run
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Prepare yourselves. Real talk.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:35 am 
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Major pattern change ahead aye aye. Its crazy how the storms come in the same place so regularly.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:06 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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snowhottie wrote:
playfulcoyote wrote:
I don't know how forceful they were in their evacuation efforts but something like this should not have come as a complete shock. They were predicting heavy thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 1.5 inches per hour over steep freshly baked soil. I heard they sent out reverse 911 calls but not until after the flash floods had occurred. I suspect that people did not realize the danger level of the situation. With an out of control wildfire it is easy to understand the danger and to see it coming and people evacuate but something like this I guess it is hard for people to visualize what may happen. The property damage couldn't have been stopped but those canyons should have been evacuated for the night.


I think another factor is how far the debris flow went. Its one thing to be backed right up against the burn and have a visual of how it could come down, but like being trapped in a Utah box canyon when the tstorm thats flash flooding it is happening miles away, you dont necessarily think of it unless you're geeks like us. It was hard sitting here that night watching the storm unfolding and the forecast precip. getting so cranked up having a good inkling of what would be going down when it hit SoCal. IMO that entire front of the fire area is a danger zone and everybody should just go during a storm this rain season. Being inconvenienced is better than being dead.


Yeah, good point. When you're surrounded by other houses on a developed street it gives you a false sense of security. You don't feel like you are in a canyon or drainage.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:13 pm 
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Cornice Bowl
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2NAKLLR wrote:
Pretty epic destruction. Not in a good way. It makes me remember Oso WA.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Oso_mudslide

It was so catastrophic. I remember thinking then that the searchers might not ever find some missing...
I hope there is lessons learned in the search from that event and hope for the best.

I have a friend of a kayakfishing associate whose 2 daughters were among the missing and I read one was announced today as deceased. RIP and empathy.



Now that was a mudslide, absolutely incredible.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:20 pm 
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Dave's Run
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playfulcoyote wrote:
Yeah, good point. When you're surrounded by other houses on a developed street it gives you a false sense of security. You don't feel like you are in a canyon or drainage.


Head over to the Mudslide Thread and you can see people thought exactly that. To be fair the flow went 3 miles and out to sea, and was not in a canyon but along very benign water courses.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:00 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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snowhottie wrote:

Image


Last loop was too long ago.
Discussion still mentions Thurs-Sat precip chance w colder air [than last]. Freakin 90 in Lake Forest OC CA yesterday.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:21 pm 
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Dave's Run
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I just came to post, this looks COLD on Friday.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:56 pm 
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2NAKLLR wrote:
snowhottie wrote:

Image


Last loop was too long ago.
Discussion still mentions Thurs-Sat precip chance w colder air [than last]. Freakin 90 in Lake Forest OC CA yesterday.

That 90° reading was 135° warmer than Embarrass MN


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:38 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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I heard that.
You could have woke up in Embarass to the low and caught a flight to OC for the afternoon high.


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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:08 pm 
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I'm puzzled why the forecast precip. is so slight when I see the jet going right across the Pacific into CA. I wonder if they are under forecasting.

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 Post subject: Re: January SoCal WX...Talk.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:05 pm 
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Kiwi Flat
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Location: In the gurgling maw of the Pacific.
No juice just flow.
At least the other thread will get some.

Ill be fortunate to get a tenth at this point in the next 10daze.


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